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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies
Total Volume
$57.46K
Events
1
Markets
1
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $57.46K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $57.46K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 1% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
1%
Top Probability
$57.46K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between San Diego State Aztecs and Utah State Aggies on January 31 at 1:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the San Diego State Aztecs a very slight edge to win this college basketball game. The odds translate to about a 56% probability, which is essentially a coin flip. This means traders collectively see the game as nearly even, with San Diego State having just a bit more than a 50/50 chance. For context, in a typical close matchup, a 56% probability suggests the favored team might win roughly 11 out of 20 times if the game were played repeatedly.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are likely shaping these tight odds. First, San Diego State is a historically strong program from the Mountain West Conference, known for tough defense and physical play. They made a run to the NCAA championship game just last season. However, their performance can be inconsistent early in the season.
Second, Grand Canyon University is not a typical underdog. They are the favorites to win the WAC conference this year and have a high-powered offense. They have already beaten a major conference team (San Francisco) this season and play with a fast, aggressive style that can challenge more established programs. The market odds reflect a genuine belief that this is a competitive non-conference matchup, not a guaranteed win for the bigger name.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The outcome will be decided at the game itself, scheduled for January 20 at 12:00 AM ET. The main signal to watch will be the official result. Since this is a single game, there are no other scheduled events that will change the prediction. However, last-minute news about player injuries or availability, which often emerges on game day, could theoretically shift the odds slightly right up until tip-off.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For individual sports games, prediction markets are generally quite accurate at aggregating collective wisdom, often performing as well as or better than expert analysts and betting lines. The modest amount of money wagered on this specific market (around $2,000) suggests it is a niche topic, which can sometimes make prices more volatile to new information. While not perfect, the 56% probability is a useful snapshot of informed sentiment, indicating a game that is expected to be decided by a few key plays.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign San Diego State a 56% chance to defeat Grand Canyon. This price indicates a slight edge for the Aztecs, but the market views the game as essentially a toss-up. With only $2,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin. This lack of heavy betting means the current odds are more susceptible to sharp moves from new information or last-minute bets, rather than representing a deep consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The pricing reflects two primary basketball realities. First, San Diego State entered this season with high expectations, returning key players from a team that reached the 2023 national championship game. Their physical, defensive identity under coach Brian Dutcher is a known commodity. Second, Grand Canyon is a legitimate threat. Ranked in the AP Top 25 earlier this season, the Antelopes play an aggressive, high-tempo style led by guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who averages over 20 points per game. They are 15-1 at home. The market's near-even odds acknowledge that SDSU's pedigree is being challenged by GCU's potent home-court advantage and offensive firepower.
What Could Change These Odds
The most immediate factor is the health of San Diego State's starting center, Jaedon LeDee. He is the team's leading scorer and rebounder. Any confirmation of a limitation or absence would likely shift odds decisively toward Grand Canyon. Conversely, if early game action shows SDSU's defense effectively slowing GCU's transition game, live betting could push the Aztecs' probability higher. In a low-liquidity market like this, a single large wager from a bettor with sharp information could also move the price several points instantly.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.