This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Name: Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.78K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Vol

$3.78K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.78K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.78K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Poly	72%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Poly	28%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May?	Poly	3%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?	Poly	1%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$3.78K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $288
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $881
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech