Market snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform5 EventsScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

Reported volume

PM $51.0K · K 30.9K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

Vol

PM $51.0K · K 30.9K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$51.0K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

30.9K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

9 markets tracked

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Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?

No data available

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 7 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Claude 6 released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Opus 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2026-12-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2026-11-30T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $51.0K · K 30.9K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Claude 6+ (any family) If Anthropic releases Claude 6+, any family, before X Y 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $51.0K · K 30.9K contracts
Coverage: 16 of 16 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27MAR31; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-claude6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 7, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 40.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 59.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

 Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4215003; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-by-march-31-2027
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $17.5K
Outcome Yes: 41.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 58.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claud

Contract: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27JUN30; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-claude6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jul 7, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 818.99 contracts
Outcome Yes: 64.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 36.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

 Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4215004; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-by-june-30-2027
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $12.0K
Outcome Yes: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claud

Contract: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27DEC31; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-claude6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 10.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

 Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4215005; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-6-released-by-december-31-2027
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $9.2K
Outcome Yes: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claud

Contract: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-26DEC31; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-claude6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 20.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 79.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

 Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5126095; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-by-december-31-2026
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $957.2
Outcome Yes: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official web

Contract: Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4895505; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-by-december-31-2026
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $2.3K
Outcome Yes: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors

Contract: Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-opus6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 21.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5130976; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-by-october-31-2026
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.1K
Outcome Yes: 12.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors

Contract: Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26DEC01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-opus6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Dec 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 17 contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 85.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4895504; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-by-november-30-2026
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $6.2K
Outcome Yes: 68.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 31.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors

Contract: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27SEP30; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-claude6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 7, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

 Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5126096; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-claude-sonnet-5pt6-released-by-january-31-2027
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Reported volume: $899.27
Outcome Yes: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official web

Contract: Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV16; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude-opus6
Observed: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.88 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-4895505 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-26DEC31: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4895504 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26DEC01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-12-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-30T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Opus 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2026-12-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2026-11-30T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5126095 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-26DEC31: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4215004 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27JUN30: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Claude 6 released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5130976 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Opus 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2026-12-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2026-11-30T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4215005 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27DEC31: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Claude 6 released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4215003 / kalshi-KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-27MAR31: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Mar 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-07T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 19, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will Anthropic release Claude 6?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-04-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z, 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Claude 6 released by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-03-31T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z, 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

Volume$9.57K

Markets5

POLYMARKETTech

Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume$1.86K

Markets2

9 of 9

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Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2028-01-07T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:34:47 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?

Yes: 89.5¢
No: 10.5¢

polymarket

Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

Yes: 92.5¢
No: 7.5¢

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?

kalshi

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?

Yes: 80.5¢
No: 19.5¢

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-07T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:34:47 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?

Yes: 64.0¢
No: 36.0¢

polymarket

Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?

Yes: 72.5¢
No: 27.5¢

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?

kalshi

Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?

Yes: 20.5¢
No: 79.5¢

polymarket

Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

Yes: 34.5¢
No: 65.5¢

polymarket

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

Yes: 76.5¢
No: 23.5¢

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-12-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-30T23:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 02:35:04 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?

Yes: 15.0¢
No: 85.0¢

polymarket

Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?

Yes: 68.5¢
No: 31.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiEntertainment

Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Anthropic release a personal AI agent before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 34%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC

KalshiScience and Technology

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

K 717.0K contracts

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 12%

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 3%

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?Yes 1%

3 mktsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC

KalshiWorld

Video games released this year

K 266.8K contracts

Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 release this year?Yes 99.5%

Will Phantom Blade Zero release this year?Yes 99%

Will Grand Theft Auto VI release this year?Yes 96%

+11 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC

KalshiTech

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

K 241.1K contracts

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?Yes 33%

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?Yes 25.5%

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?Yes 21%

+1 moreNext deadline Oct 30, 2026 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 01, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?