NE-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $18.0K
1
8
NE-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $18.0K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 10-15% at 32.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 10-15%32.5%
- Democrat 15-20%22.5%
- Democrat 0-5%17.9%
- Democrat 5-10%13.3%
- Democrat 20-25%3.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $18.0K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NE-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NE-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a set of eight Polymarket contracts about the margin of victory in the 2026 NE-02 House election. The margin is the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates [1]. Each contract asks whether a named party's candidate wins by a particular bracket. Four brackets cover Democratic wins (0%-5%, 5%-10%, 10%-15%, 15%-20%, 20%-25%, and 25% or more, six in total), and two cover Republican wins (0%-5% and 5% or more) [1].
The wording matters for reading the prices. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket. Independent candidates are not options for either party, and a replacement nominee is substituted in the contract name [1]. The source states that the listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, while the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The end time is when trading closes according to the listing. The resolution deadline is separate: if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A recount also keeps a market open until it is completed and the vote is certified [1].
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:32:21.380Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not live quotes and should not be treated as executable prices or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1]. Within the sample, the highest Yes price is 0.235 for the Democratic 10%-15% bracket. The Democratic 0%-5% bracket is 0.2105, and the 15%-20% bracket is 0.215. The Republican 5% or more bracket is 0.006 [1].
The Yes prices do not form a normalized set. Adding the eight Yes prices gives about 0.971, so a reader should not assume they sum to 1 or that each bracket's price is a fixed share of outcomes. Each contract is a separate market, and no combined average across brackets is meaningful here.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not offer a cause. The sample also has no "Other" contract, so the absence of a lower-priced outcome should not be read as evidence that a missing outcome is less likely. The source notes that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume and trader counts are not included in the excerpt, so this snapshot does not indicate liquidity or market participation. Any comparison with another platform would require contracts with matching wording, close times, and resolution rules, which the supplied evidence does not contain.
References
- Polymarket: NE-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (NE-02). The election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The state's House elections will elect three representatives, one from each congressional district, and coincide with other federal and state elections on the same date [2]. Primary elections in Nebraska took place on May 12, 2026 [2]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the winning margin will be. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. For this market, the Democratic and Republican Party nominees are the two options labeled "Democrat" and "Republican." Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. The contract may name candidates for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Each saved market is a margin bracket. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The contract also sets tie rules. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the lowest margin bracket applies to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate applies. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The market resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official, and the primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. Reporting from an overwhelming consensus of credible sources may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the time the contract closes for trading in the provider record, not the date of the election. The election date itself is November 3, 2026 [1][2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the gap between the two leading party candidates in a single congressional race. Because the margin is calculated from valid votes and the rules specify how ties, boundary values, recounts and certification delays are handled, the resolution depends on the official certified count rather than on early or unofficial reporting [1]. Traders and readers can use the bracket structure to see how the market divides possible margins into ranges, such as 0 to 5 percent or 25 percent or more, for the Democratic or Republican candidate [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Yes price show the probability that a margin bracket will happen?
The available data gives price snapshots from the provider, which are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The contract itself defines only how the margin is measured and how the market resolves [1].
Which candidates count for the Democratic and Republican options?
The Democratic and Republican Party nominees represent those options. Independent candidates are not options for either party [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the party's replacement nominee [1].
When does the market resolve?
It resolves based on the official vote count once that count is made official. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to Other [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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