NE-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.6K
1
10
NE-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.6K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 9-12% at 21.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 9-12%21.5%
- Republican 12-15%17%
- Republican 6-9%16%
- Republican 3-6%14.2%
- Republican 0-3%10.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.6K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NE-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NE-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 NE-01 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. Some brackets name the Republican Party candidate as the winner by a stated margin, others name the Democratic Party candidate, and one covers a Democratic win by 3% or more. Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1].
The rules include several edge cases. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket. Ties follow a ballot-listed last-name rule. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That deadline is a rule limit, not an announced date for certification.
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source also states that the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time and the expected election date are different facts, and the contract's close time should not be read as the election date.
Reading the snapshot
This snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:00:44.007Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes, not executable prices, and not verified probabilities.
Among the ten saved markets, the highest Yes price is 0.20 for the Republican Party candidate winning by 6% to 9%. The Republican 3% to 6% bracket is at 0.1855, and the Republican 9% to 12% bracket is at 0.185. Several Democratic brackets and the Republican 15% to 18% bracket are priced below 0.10.
The sample includes all ten saved markets for this event, and the record marks the sample as not partial [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Prices of brackets that were not saved should not be assumed to be lower. The saved ranking reflects only this event's listed Yes prices.
Volume is not provided in these records. Volume is not liquidity or a count of traders, so this snapshot cannot show how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not show movement over time, since only one observation is provided. The rules say resolution depends on the official certified count, and a recount would keep the market open [1]. Different brackets have different boundary and tie rules, so direct comparison should account for wording.
References
- Polymarket: NE-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market belongs to the Polymarket event titled "NE-01 House Election Margin of Victory," which concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's first congressional district [1]. The provider states that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A separate Wikipedia entry on the 2026 House elections in Nebraska says the elections will be held on that date to elect the state's three U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, and that they will coincide with other federal and state elections [2]. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the winning margin will be. According to the provider, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure is an absolute difference, the contract does not distinguish between a Democratic win and a Republican win of the same size. Instead, individual contracts are written for specific brackets, with some asking whether the Republican candidate will win by a given range and others asking the same about the Democratic candidate [1]. The sample saved for this snapshot contains ten contracts from this event, each with a Yes price and a No price. The prices reflect the most recent saved observations and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A high or low price in one bracket says nothing about the likelihood of another bracket unless the contract rules connect them, and they do not. Volume figures, where present, describe trading activity rather than liquidity or the number of participants.
Historical Context
The supplied sources provide only limited background. The Wikipedia entry on the 2026 Nebraska House elections states that primary elections took place on May 12, 2026 [2]. It also places the general election on November 3, 2026, the same date given by the market provider [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry describes the 2024 presidential election in Nebraska, which took place on November 5, 2024, and notes that Nebraska has five electoral votes [3]. That presidential race is a different contest from the 2026 House race in the first district, so it does not describe this market's candidates or results.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the spread between the top two vote shares in the NE-01 House election, which is a different question from who wins. Under the provider's rules, the result is calculated from valid votes only, and each candidate's percentage is measured against all valid votes cast in the election [1]. This makes the contract sensitive to the official count rather than to early or unofficial returns, because the provider states that the market will resolve based on the official vote count once it has been made official [1]. The provider also defines how party labels work. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Traders reading these contracts should therefore focus on the rules about party nominees rather than on the candidate names printed in the contract titles.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated under this contract?
The provider defines the margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Does an independent candidate count as a Democrat or Republican option?
No. The provider states that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent those options, and that independent candidates will not represent either option [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as the party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The provider states that the market resolves to the higher margin bracket in that case [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the provider uses the ballot-listed last name of the relevant candidate to decide the lowest margin bracket. If the tie is between an unlisted candidate and a listed one, the listed candidate's bracket applies. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What determines when the market resolves?
The provider says the market resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official, and that the primary resolution source will be the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if results are not known by the deadline?
The provider states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the resolution date?
No. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026, at 04:59 UTC for these contracts [1]. That is a listed trading end time in the provider data, and the contract rules tie resolution to the official certified count, a recount, or the June 30, 2027 fallback [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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