$253.43K
1
9
$253.43K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahre
Prediction markets currently give a 100% chance that Seoul's highest temperature on February 28 will be 6°C or below. In practical terms, traders are completely certain the day will not be warm. The leading forecast for the specific high is centered on the 2°C to 4°C range, which is a cold late-winter day.
Two main factors explain this near-certain forecast. First, the date itself provides strong historical context. Late February in Seoul is consistently cold. Average highs for the city at this time are typically between 3°C and 6°C, so a prediction solidly within that band aligns with long-term climate patterns.
Second, and more specifically, traders are likely weighing reliable short-term weather models. As the resolution date is only days away, meteorological forecasts have become highly accurate. These professional models almost certainly show a stable cold air mass over the region, with no signs of an unusual warm surge. The market has converged on this data, leaving no real probability for a warmer outlier.
The main event is the day itself, February 28. The official high temperature will be recorded at the Incheon International Airport weather station. Markets will resolve shortly after, once the data is finalized and published on the source website, Wunderground.
There are no earlier decision points or announcements that could change the prediction. All relevant information from weather models is already available and has been priced in by traders.
For short-term weather events like this, prediction markets are typically very accurate. When the event is just days away, markets effectively aggregate professional weather forecasts, which have high precision. The main limitation isn't the market's mechanism, but the inherent small chance of a highly unexpected weather anomaly. In this case, that risk is seen as virtually zero, hence the 100% odds. For comparison, markets are less reliable for long-range seasonal forecasts months in advance.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain outcome for Seoul's weather on February 28. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 28?" is trading at 100%. This price indicates traders see virtually no chance of the temperature exceeding 6°C. With $284,000 in total volume across related markets, there is enough liquidity to consider this a consensus view, not just thin trading. The market is in its final hours before resolution.
Two concrete factors explain the extreme market confidence. First, the historical climate data for Seoul in late February is definitive. The average high temperature for the city at this time is between 3°C and 5°C. A reading above 6°C would be a significant anomaly. Second, short-term weather forecasts from major meteorological services, which are the basis for resolution, have consistently shown a stable cold air mass over the region. These forecasts have not wavered in the days leading to the event, eliminating the uncertainty that typically drives price movement in weather markets.
For a market priced at 100%, the only factor that could change the odds would be a catastrophic failure of the resolution process, such as a data error from the specified source, Wunderground. The meteorological conditions themselves are now locked in. Traders have effectively treated this as a resolved event based on highly reliable forecast models. The remaining activity is likely positional settlement between holders of the opposing "above 6°C" contract, which is trading at 0%.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station in Seoul, South Korea, on March 2, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical weather archive for the specific weather station located at the airport, designated by the code RKSI. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the official high temperature for that date, as measured in degrees Celsius. This type of market falls under climate prediction, blending meteorology with speculative forecasting. Interest stems from multiple areas: meteorologists testing seasonal models, financial traders hedging against weather-sensitive industries, and the general public engaging with climate trends. The specific choice of Incheon International Airport as the measurement site is significant because it is the official reference station for Seoul's metropolitan weather data, maintained to World Meteorological Organization standards, ensuring consistency and reliability for comparative analysis. Recent years have seen increased volatility in early spring temperatures across East Asia, making March forecasts particularly challenging and economically relevant. The market provides a quantified, crowd-sourced perspective on a specific climatic outcome, offering an alternative viewpoint to traditional meteorological forecasts.
Systematic weather observation in Seoul began in 1907, with records maintained by the Korean Meteorological Observatory, a predecessor to the KMA. The official observation site was moved to Incheon International Airport after its opening in 2001, providing a more consistent location away from Seoul's intense urban development. Historical data shows a clear warming trend for March. Between 1973 and 2022, the average March temperature in Seoul increased by approximately 2.1°C, according to KMA climate reports. This trend makes predicting "normal" temperatures for any given March day increasingly difficult. Specific precedent for March 2 exists in the historical record. For example, on March 2, 2021, the high temperature at Incheon was 12.8°C. In contrast, on March 2, 2018, the high was only 1.6°C. This historical range of over 11 degrees Celsius for the same calendar date illustrates the significant interannual variability driven by competing air masses: cold, dry Siberian highs versus warmer, moist Pacific systems. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation also influences Korean winter and spring temperatures, with El Niño phases typically associated with milder conditions.
Accurate temperature forecasts for early March have direct economic consequences. This period coincides with the start of the agricultural season for certain crops, and unexpected frosts or warm spells can damage harvests and affect commodity prices. Energy demand is also highly sensitive; a warmer-than-expected day reduces heating oil and natural gas consumption, impacting utility companies and energy traders. For the aviation sector centered on Incheon Airport, temperature affects aircraft performance, runway conditions, and fog likelihood, influencing flight schedules and fuel logistics. On a broader scale, the outcome of this specific prediction contributes to the larger dataset tracking climate change in East Asia. Consistent recording of above-average temperatures for early spring dates adds evidence to regional warming patterns. This data informs government policy on climate adaptation, urban planning, and disaster preparedness for heatwaves or shifting precipitation patterns. The market's result is a single data point, but within the context of decades of records, it helps answer whether observed warming is accelerating, stabilizing, or exhibiting new patterns of variability.
As of early 2025, meteorological agencies are beginning to issue initial seasonal outlooks for the winter and spring of 2025-2026. The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be a primary factor. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's latest models suggest a potential transition from El Niño to neutral conditions by early 2026, which could reduce the warming influence on the Korean Peninsula typical of strong El Niño winters. The KMA will release its official seasonal forecast for spring 2026 in February of that year. Current climate models project a continued global warming trend, which statistically increases the probability of above-average temperatures for any given date, but specific daily outcomes remain subject to short-term atmospheric variability.
Incheon International Airport is the official reference climate station for the Seoul metropolitan area. Airport locations are preferred by the World Meteorological Organization because they have large, open spaces with uniform ground cover, minimizing the distorting urban heat island effect found in city centers. This provides a more consistent long-term climate record.
The maximum temperature typically occurs in the early to mid-afternoon, between 2 PM and 4 PM local Korea Standard Time. This is when solar heating peaks. The official daily high is the single highest reading from the automated sensors during the 24-hour period ending at midnight.
Forecast skill decreases rapidly beyond 10 days. A specific temperature forecast for a date months in the future is not possible. Instead, seasonal outlooks predict whether temperatures over a three-month period will be above, near, or below average. The exact daily high is determined by short-term weather systems unpredictable more than a week in advance.
The Korea Meteorological Administration has rigorous quality control procedures. If the primary sensor at RKSI fails, data from a backup sensor at the same site or from a nearby designated alternative station would be used to fill the gap, following WMO guidelines. The resolution source, Wunderground, would display the official quality-controlled value from the KMA.
The urban heat island effect has significantly warmed central Seoul compared to surrounding rural areas, especially at night. Using the Incheon Airport station, which is less affected, helps isolate the regional climate change signal from local urbanization effects. Studies estimate Seoul's urban heat island adds approximately 1-2°C to nighttime lows compared to the airport.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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