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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

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Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

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0.0%avg

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10 markets tracked

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)	Kalshi	96%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)	Kalshi	91%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)	Kalshi	79%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)	Kalshi	51%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)	Kalshi	36%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 225,000)	Kalshi	21%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 230,000)	Kalshi	15%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 235,000)	Kalshi	11%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 240,000)	Kalshi	7%
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 245,000)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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96%

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About This Event

For the week ending Jul 11, 2026 If there are at least X initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, August 24, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For the week ending Jul 11, 2026

If there are at least X initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If there are at least 245,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 245,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 240,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 235,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 230,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 225,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets10

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KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

If there are at least 200,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

If there are at least 205,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

If there are at least 210,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

If there are at least 215,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHITech

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

If there are at least 220,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Average Yes Price

41¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/EMFurt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026"></iframe>

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Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

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How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

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Events (1)

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

Markets (10)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 200,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 205,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 210,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 215,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Jul 11, 2026? (At least 220,000)

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