Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia

Name: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia

Vol

$4.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Poly	97%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$4.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This mar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 26, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This mar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $54.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $964
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics