Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHICompanies

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026?

Total Volume

$283.41K

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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $283.41K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $283.41K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will Iran close Strait of Hormuz before Jan 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran close Strait of Hormuz before Jan 2027?	Kalshi	38%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$283.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2027 If Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to cargo and tanker ships after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The closure must be the direct result of deliberate actions by Iran. For the purposes of this Contract, "effectively closed" occurs when the seven-day moving average of commercial vessel transits (both cargo and tanker ships) through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by 90% or more compared to the seven-day moving average 30 days prior to

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to cargo and tanker ships after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The closure must be the direct result of deliberate actions by Iran. For the purposes of this Contract, "effectively closed" occurs when the seven-day moving average of commercial vessel transits (both cargo and tanker ships) through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by 90% or more compared to the seven-day moving average 30 days prior to

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to cargo and tanker ships after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The closure must be the direct result of deliberate actions by Iran. For the purposes of this Contract, "effectively closed" occurs w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $283.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran close Strait of Hormuz before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $283.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

38¢

Kalshi

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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026?

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026?

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Will Iran close Strait of Hormuz before Jan 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)