CPI core in November 2026
$0.00
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
In Nov 2026 If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for November 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above X then the market resolves to Yes. Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be exten
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi is pricing an 80% probability that core CPI (excluding food and energy) will show any positive monthly increase in November 2026. This is not a bet on inflation staying hot. It is a bet that prices simply do not go negative. An 80% price suggests the market treats a flat or negative month as a genuine tail risk, not a fringe possibility. The market is essentially saying there is a 1 in 5 chance the BLS reports zero or negative core inflation for that month.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The last time core CPI posted a negative monthly reading was May 2020, during the pandemic collapse. Before that, you have to go back to 1982. Negative core prints are historically rare outside recessions or demand shocks. The market is pricing 80% because the Fed has maintained positive inflation momentum since 2021, and shelter costs remain sticky. Even with rate cuts expected by late 2026, the underlying structure of services inflation tends to keep core readings above zero.
But there is a second factor. By November 2026, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy from 2022-2023 will have fully passed through. The market is pricing that the economy will either be in a soft landing or mild slowdown, not a deflationary bust. A recession could flip this, but recession odds on Kalshi for 2026 are below 30%.
What Could Change These Odds
The 20% chance of zero or negative core CPI is not irrational. If the economy enters recession in the second half of 2026, core inflation can drop sharply. Rent indexes have already been decelerating. A labor market crackup would crater services demand. The November release is also subject to seasonal adjustment quirks. November often sees lower core readings than other months. If October posts a very low number, the sequential expectations could shift.
The key date to watch is the October 2026 CPI release in mid-November. If that comes in at 0.0% or negative, the November market will repriced sharply toward 50% or lower. Until then, 80% is a reasonable anchor for a historically rare event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the primary measure of inflation in the United States, calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The 'All Items less Food and Energy' index, commonly called core CPI, excludes the volatile food and energy sectors to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. For November 2026, the prediction market focuses on the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in this index. The BLS releases this data around the second week of each month, with the November 2026 report expected in December 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the reported increase exceeds a specified threshold, which is set by the market creator and is not predetermined by the BLS. This threshold is typically a percentage point, such as 0.3% or 0.4%, reflecting expectations about inflation persistence. The prediction market allows traders to bet on whether inflation will remain elevated or cool down, based on data from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge for monetary policy decisions.
Historical Context
The core CPI has been a key inflation measure since the 1970s, when food and energy price spikes during the oil crises distorted the headline CPI. The BLS began publishing a separate core index in 1978. From 1982 to 2020, core CPI averaged about 2.5% annually, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp deviation. In 2021, supply chain disruptions and fiscal stimulus pushed core CPI to 5.5% by December, and it peaked at 6.6% in September 2022, the highest since 1982. The Federal Reserve responded by raising the federal funds rate from near zero in March 2022 to 5.25-5.50% by July 2023. By late 2023, core CPI had fallen to around 4.0%, and by 2024 it dropped below 3.0% for the first time since early 2021. The 2024 election and subsequent fiscal policy changes under the Trump administration introduced new variables, including tariffs and tax cuts, which could affect inflation in 2025-2026. The November 2026 reading will be the first November data after the 2026 midterm elections, making it politically sensitive.
Why It Matters
The November 2026 core CPI reading directly influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at its December 2026 meeting. If core CPI rises above the threshold, the Fed may delay or pause rate cuts, which would affect borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business investment. Higher inflation also erodes real wages, impacting consumer purchasing power, particularly for low- and middle-income households. The data will also shape political narratives ahead of the 2028 presidential election, as the incumbent party will want to show inflation is under control. Financial markets, including stocks and bonds, react sharply to CPI releases, with the S&P 500 often moving 1-2% on release days. For prediction market traders, the outcome determines whether they win or lose their bets, but the broader significance is that it offers a real-time gauge of whether the economy is returning to the Fed's 2% target or facing persistent inflationary pressures.
Current Status
As of early 2025, the core CPI annual rate stands at around 2.6%, down from 3.2% a year earlier. The monthly changes have been volatile, with readings ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% in recent months. The Fed has paused rate cuts since September 2024, waiting for more data on inflation. The Trump administration's tariff policies, particularly on Chinese goods, are expected to add 0.2-0.5% to core CPI by late 2025. The prediction market for November 2026 is already active, with the threshold likely set between 0.2% and 0.4% depending on the market creator's assumptions. Traders are watching the monthly CPI releases closely, with the October 2026 data (released in November) providing the last major data point before the November report.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between headline CPI and core CPI?
Headline CPI includes all items, while core CPI excludes food and energy prices because they are more volatile and can obscure underlying inflation trends. The Fed focuses on core CPI for policy decisions.
How does the BLS seasonally adjust CPI data?
The BLS uses the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software to remove predictable seasonal patterns, like holiday price surges or post-holiday drops. The adjustment factors are updated annually based on the last five years of data.
When is the November 2026 CPI data released?
The BLS typically releases CPI data for a given month around the second week of the following month. The November 2026 report will likely be released in mid-December 2026, around December 10-15.
What happens if the government shuts down and the CPI release is delayed?
The prediction market includes a provision for delays due to a federal government shutdown. If the BLS cannot publish the data on time, the market's expiration date will be extended until the data is released.
How do tariffs affect core CPI?
Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which directly raises consumer prices. For example, tariffs on Chinese electronics and machinery can add to core CPI because these items are included in the index. The effect typically appears within 3-6 months of the tariff being imposed.
What is the typical market reaction to a higher-than-expected core CPI reading?
A higher reading usually causes the stock market to fall, as investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher. Bond yields rise, and the U.S. dollar strengthens. The S&P 500 can drop 1-2% on the day of the release.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
