Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How strong will Nolo be?

Name: How strong will Nolo be?
End: 2026-10-16T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.76K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How strong will Nolo be?

Vol

$16.76K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.76K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Nolo peak at Category 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Nolo peak at Category 4?	Poly	99%
Will Nolo peak at Category 5?	Poly	2%
Will Nolo peak at Category 1 or weaker?	Poly	1%
Will Nolo peak at Category 3?	Poly	1%
Will Nolo peak at Category 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$16.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Nolo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Nolo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each categor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How strong will Nolo be?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 16, 2026 (5 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Nolo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Nolo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each categor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Nolo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Nolo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustaine"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nolo peak at Category 1 or weaker?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nolo peak at Category 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $952
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Nolo peak at Category 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Nolo peak at Category 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Nolo peak at Category 5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate