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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?

Name: How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$61.52

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Markets

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How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?

Vol

$61.52

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $61.52

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $61.52

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% by the end of May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% by the end of May?	Poly	56%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	Poly	56%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?	Poly	45%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% by the end of May?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$61.52

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $62
* **Total Liquidity:** $432
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% by the end of May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $7
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% by the end of May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics