Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Espírito Santo Governor winner?

Total Volume

$10.97K

Events

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Espírito Santo Governor winner?

Vol

$10.97K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $10.97K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.97K

100%

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2 markets tracked

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	93%
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$10.97K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Espírito Santo Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ricardo Ferraço wins the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Espírito Santo Governor winner?

Volume$10.97K

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

If Lorenzo Pazolini wins the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if t

KALSHI

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

If Ricardo Ferraço wins the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if th

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/EXbx8f" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Espírito Santo Governor winner?"></iframe>

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Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

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Events (1)

Espírito Santo Governor winner?

Markets (2)

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

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Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

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Espírito Santo Governor winner?

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

Will Ricardo Ferraço win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election?

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