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Event GroupKALSHIElections

How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

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How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

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6 markets tracked

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic State Committee directly selects Graham Platner's replacement before Aug 1, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

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93%

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About This Event

Before Aug 1, 2026 If the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a X Y Z after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Aug 1, 2026

If the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a X Y Z after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Graham Platner drops out, but the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement  after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic State Committee directly selects Graham Platner's replacement before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

If the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merel

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

If the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merel

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

If Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in July 2026 after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference pri

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

If the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

If Graham Platner drops out, but the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference

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How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

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Events (1)

How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

Markets (6)

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a statewide caucus process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through another process before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement for Graham Platner before Aug 1, 2026?

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