Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Name: Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
End: 2026-09-21T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Vol

$19.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	80%
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	78%
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	67%
Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	22%
Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	4%
Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	3%
Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	2%
Will FW be in the next Berlin state government?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$19.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formal

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 21, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formal

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $43.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $446
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will FW be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld