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Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this m
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a highly uncertain outlook for voter turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking if turnout will fall between 55% and 60%, is trading at 48¢, implying a 48% probability. This near-coin-flip probability suggests the market sees this range as the most likely single outcome but lacks strong conviction, with significant probability mass spread across adjacent brackets. The high liquidity, with $1.2 million in total volume, indicates serious trader interest and confidence in the market's fundamental pricing mechanisms despite the uncertainty in the outcome.
Two primary factors are shaping this uncertain forecast. First, historical context is crucial. Turnout in Honduras's 2021 general election was approximately 68.5%, a significant figure driven by a pivotal election marking the end of 12 years of National Party rule. The current pricing around a lower 55-60% band suggests the market anticipates a reversion to a more typical, potentially lower engagement level now that the historic 2021 cycle has passed. Second, the prevailing political climate under President Xiomara Castro, elected in 2021, influences projections. While her election energized voters, ongoing challenges like economic pressures and security issues could dampen enthusiasm or, conversely, mobilize voters seeking change, creating conflicting signals that result in a wide probability distribution.
The odds will be most sensitive to campaign dynamics and pre-election polling data through 2025. A highly polarized or contentious presidential race, particularly if it features a strong challenger to Castro's LIBRE party, could mobilize voters and shift probability toward higher turnout brackets, like 60-65% or above. Conversely, voter apathy due to political disillusionment or a perceived lack of competitive alternatives could solidify expectations for turnout below 55%. Key catalysts will include the official nomination of candidates, the tone of the campaign season, and any credible independent voter enthusiasm surveys published in the months leading to the November 30, 2025 election date.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2025 Honduran general election, scheduled for November 30, 2025, will be a critical test for the country's democracy following the historic 2021 election of President Xiomara Castro, the nation's first female leader. This prediction market focuses specifically on voter turnout, measured as the percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots. Turnout is a key indicator of political engagement, institutional trust, and the perceived legitimacy of electoral outcomes in a nation with a complex history of political instability and low participation rates. The election will determine the presidency, all 128 seats in the National Congress, and 298 municipal governments, making it a comprehensive political event. Interest in turnout stems from its potential to signal public confidence in Castro's administration, which has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms and economic revitalization, and from concerns about voter apathy, security challenges, and the influence of organized crime on electoral participation. Analysts are watching to see if Castro's government can mobilize the electorate that brought her to power or if disillusionment will lead to decreased engagement.
Voter turnout in Honduras has been historically volatile and often low, reflecting deep-seated issues of political trust and social exclusion. In the 2013 election, following the 2009 coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya (Xiomara Castro's husband), turnout was approximately 61.2%. The contentious 2017 election, marred by allegations of fraud and post-election violence, saw a reported turnout of around 57.5%, though these figures were disputed. The 2021 election marked a significant shift, with turnout rising to an estimated 68.5%, driven by high mobilization for Castro's candidacy and widespread desire for change after 12 years of National Party rule. This historical pattern shows turnout is sensitive to political crises, the competitiveness of races, and the presence of compelling alternatives to the status quo. The 2025 election will occur in the shadow of this recent high-water mark, testing whether increased participation represents a new norm or a temporary phenomenon tied to Castro's initial candidacy.
Voter turnout is a fundamental metric of democratic health. A high turnout in 2025 would suggest sustained civic engagement and public belief that the political system can address national challenges, potentially granting the winner a stronger mandate to govern. Conversely, a significant drop could indicate voter apathy, disillusionment with Castro's government, or fear of violence, undermining the legitimacy of the next administration. This has direct implications for Honduras's stability, its ability to attract foreign investment, and its negotiations with international partners on issues like migration and security. The outcome will also send signals about the durability of the political realignment that brought LIBRE to power and the potential for democratic consolidation in a region facing significant governance challenges.
As of late 2024, Honduras is in the pre-electoral phase. The National Electoral Council (CNE) is undertaking voter registration updates and preparing the logistical framework for the November 2025 vote. Political parties are in internal processes to select presidential, congressional, and municipal candidates. President Castro's LIBRE party is expected to formally nominate its candidate in early 2025, with Castro eligible to run for a second term. The main opposition National Party is grappling with internal divisions following its 2021 defeat. Security preparations are a major focus, given past incidents of electoral violence.
The general election in Honduras is scheduled for Sunday, November 30, 2025. Voters will elect the President, all 128 members of the National Congress, and 298 municipal mayors and councils.
All Honduran citizens aged 18 and over are eligible to vote. Citizens must be registered on the official electoral roll (Padrón Electoral) maintained by the National Electoral Council (CNE). Voting is compulsory by law, though the mandate is not strictly enforced.
Turnout is officially calculated by the CNE as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered, eligible voters (electores habilitados). This percentage is reported after the election and is the metric used for this prediction market's resolution.
In the 2021 general election, the National Electoral Council reported a voter turnout of approximately 68.5%. This was a significant increase from the disputed 2017 election, which had an estimated turnout of 57.5%.
Yes, the Honduran constitution allows for a single consecutive re-election. President Xiomara Castro is therefore eligible to run for a second four-year term in the 2025 election. Her party, LIBRE, has not yet formally announced its candidate.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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