The next French parliamentary election is scheduled to occur no later than June 2027, but the French constitution allows the President to dissolve the National Assembly and call an early election. This prediction market asks whether the date of the next parliamentary election will be declared by December 31, 2025. The current National Assembly was elected in June 2022, and under normal circumstances, its term runs five years. However, President Emmanuel Macron has the sole authority to dissolve the assembly and call a snap election at any time, a power granted by Article 12 of the French Constitution. The last dissolution was in 1997 by President Jacques Chirac, which backfired when the left won a majority. Since the 2022 election, Macron's centrist coalition, Ensemble, has held a relative majority but not an absolute one, forcing the government to rely on ad hoc support from other parties to pass legislation. This has made governing difficult, especially after the 2023 pension reform protests and the 2024 budget battles. Political instability and a fragmented parliament have led to speculation that Macron might call an early election to try to secure a clearer mandate. The far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen has gained in polls, while the left-wing NUPES coalition has fractured. Macron's approval ratings have declined, and his party lost the 2024 European Parliament election to the RN. These factors create conditions where a snap election could be called before the end of 2025, either to capitalize on a favorable moment or to preempt further erosion of support. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the government officially declares a date for the next parliamentary election by the end of 2025, regardless of whether the election actually takes place within that timeframe. The primary resolution source is official French government announcements, with credible news reporting as a secondary source.

Historical Context

The French Fifth Republic, established in 1958, has seen only six dissolutions of the National Assembly under Article 12. President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the assembly in 1962 and 1968, both times to seek a new mandate after political crises. The 1962 dissolution followed a no-confidence vote against his government, and de Gaulle's coalition won a larger majority. The 1968 dissolution came during the May 1968 protests, and again the Gaullists won a landslide. President François Mitterrand dissolved the assembly in 1981 and 1988 after his presidential election victories, both times securing Socialist majorities. The most recent dissolution was in 1997 by President Jacques Chirac, who called a snap election a year early hoping to strengthen his majority. That backfired: the left-wing coalition led by Lionel Jospin won a majority, forcing Chirac into a five-year period of cohabitation. Since 1997, no French president has used the dissolution power. The current National Assembly was elected in two rounds on June 12 and 19, 2022. Macron's Ensemble coalition won 245 seats, 44 short of an absolute majority (289). The left-wing NUPES coalition won 131 seats, the far-right RN won 89, and the center-right Republicans won 61. This fragmented result has made it the most divided parliament of the Fifth Republic. Macron's government has relied on Article 49.3 to pass key legislation, including the 2023 pension reform that raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. That reform sparked months of protests and strikes, with an estimated 1.3 million people demonstrating on March 23, 2023. The government survived multiple no-confidence votes, the closest by just nine votes in March 2023. In the 2024 European Parliament election on June 9, 2024, the RN list led by Jordan Bardella won 31.4% of the vote, more than double Macron's Renaissance list at 14.6%. This result was widely interpreted as a rebuke of Macron's government and has intensified speculation about a possible snap parliamentary election.