This prediction market asks whether Kristi Noem will be impeached as United States Secretary of Homeland Security by the end of 2026. Impeachment is the formal process by which the House of Representatives charges a federal official with 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.' For this market, a 'Yes' resolution requires only that the House, by a simple majority vote, approves at least one article of impeachment against Noem before December 31, 2026. Conviction by the Senate or her removal from office is not necessary. Kristi Noem, the Republican Governor of South Dakota, was nominated by former President Donald Trump to be Secretary of Homeland Security following the 2024 presidential election. Her confirmation process and subsequent tenure have been marked by significant controversy. As Secretary, Noem oversees a vast department responsible for border security, immigration enforcement, cybersecurity, disaster response, and terrorism prevention. Her policy directives, particularly regarding immigration and border management, have drawn intense scrutiny and opposition from congressional Democrats. The question of impeachment reflects deep political divisions and the potential for constitutional confrontation between the executive and legislative branches during a presidential administration.

Historical Context

Impeachment of a Cabinet secretary is a rare event in American history. Only one Cabinet secretary has ever been impeached by the House of Representatives: Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876. Belknap was charged with corruption for accepting bribes in exchange for appointing a Fort Sill post trader. He resigned just before the House vote, but the House impeached him anyway. The Senate subsequently tried him, and while a majority voted for conviction, they fell short of the required two-thirds majority, so he was acquitted. This precedent confirms that impeachment can proceed against a resigned official and that the standard for House impeachment is a political, not a criminal, one. The modern era has seen increased use of impeachment as a political tool. The House impeached President Bill Clinton in 1998 and President Donald Trump twice, in 2019 and 2021. The 2023 impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas by the House, though he was later acquitted by the Senate, is the most direct recent precedent. The House voted 214-213 to impeach Mayorkas on charges of 'willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law' and 'breach of public trust' related to border management. This established a contemporary template for impeaching a sitting Homeland Security Secretary over policy disputes and administration of immigration laws.

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