Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

Name: ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026
End: 2026-11-02T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

Vol

$10.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Poly	22%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	Poly	20%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	Poly	19%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?	Poly	18%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	Poly	12%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	Poly	7%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 59.0 in October?	Poly	1%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 51.0 in October?	Poly	1%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	Poly	1%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in October?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$10.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 2, 2026 (22 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 51.0 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $384
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $654
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $761
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $428
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 59.0 in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $375
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy