Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Balkan Bonanza: Serbia and Bulgaria Elections Combo

Name: Balkan Bonanza: Serbia and Bulgaria Elections Combo
End: 2026-11-02T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$0.00

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Balkan Bonanza: Serbia and Bulgaria Elections Combo

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$0.00

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?	Poly	63%
Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?	Poly	40%
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?	Poly	21%
Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?	Poly	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the first Prime Minister of Serbia to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the winner of the Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round. For full rules for the Serbian Prime Minister, click here: http

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Balkan Bonanza: Serbia and Bulgaria Elections Combo
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 2, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the first Prime Minister of Serbia to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the winner of the Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round.

For full rules for the Serbian Prime Minister, click here: http

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the first Prime Minister o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics