Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Total Volume

$59.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Vol

$59.49K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $59.49K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $59.49K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	87%
Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	78%
Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	67%
Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	56%
Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	41%
Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$59.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In Q4 2026 If real GDP, as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, increases by more than X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Q4 2026

If real GDP, as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, increases by more than X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 4.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $59.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $924
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $52.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $407
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $376
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 29, 2027): Vol $138
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Volume$59.49K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo

KALSHI

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo

KALSHI

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.0¢No 22.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo

KALSHI

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo

KALSHI

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM follo

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

53¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Eu4KYj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Markets (9)

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?

Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026?