$7.05K
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$7.05K
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6 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 37% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 11% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) winning between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election. The leading contract on this specific bracket trades at just 39% on Polymarket. This price suggests the market views this outcome as somewhat unlikely, though not impossible. With thin liquidity of only $7,000 spread across six seat-range markets, the overall signal is tentative. The market structure implies traders are still forming a consensus, with no single seat count emerging as a clear favorite.
The cautious pricing reflects the IUML's strong but potentially plateauing position within Kerala's United Democratic Front (UDF) coalition. Historically, the IUML has been a consistent performer, securing 15 seats in both the 2016 and 2021 assembly elections. The current market bracket of 16-18 seats represents a modest gain from this historical baseline. The low probability indicates skepticism that the party can significantly expand its seat share in 2026. This is likely due to the entrenched nature of Kerala's bipolar politics, where the IUML's core minority vote bank in its strongholds of Malappuram and neighboring districts shows limited scope for geographical growth against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Furthermore, the IUML's influence is tied to the UDF's overall performance. Early polling and sentiment for the 2026 election do not yet show a decisive wave in favor of the opposition UDF, which would be necessary for the IUML to surpass its recent results. The market is effectively pricing in continuity rather than a breakout.
The odds will become more defined as the election approaches in early 2026 and coalition seat-sharing agreements are finalized. A key catalyst will be the formal UFD seat allocation, expected in late 2025 or early 2026. If the IUML is awarded a larger number of winnable constituencies than in previous cycles, the probability for the 16-18 seat bracket and higher ranges would increase. Conversely, any internal coalition strife or a strong anti-incumbency wave favoring the LDF could jeopardize even the IUML's existing seats, shifting probability toward lower brackets.
Regional factors, such as heightened political mobilization around specific local issues in northern Kerala, could also alter the trajectory. The market's current low liquidity means new information or significant trading volume from informed local participants could cause rapid price swings in the coming months.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the electoral performance of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the upcoming Kerala Legislative Assembly election, scheduled for March to May 2026. The market specifically resolves based on the number of seats the IUML wins in the 140-member assembly. The IUML is a pivotal regional party and a permanent member of the United Democratic Front (UDF), the principal opposition coalition in Kerala. Its seat count is a critical indicator of the coalition's overall strength and its ability to challenge the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by the CPI(M). People are interested in this topic because the IUML's performance directly influences Kerala's political balance, governance priorities, and the representation of the Muslim community, which constitutes about 26% of the state's population. The party's stronghold in the northern Malabar region makes its seat tally a key variable in determining which coalition forms the government. Recent developments include internal debates within the UDF regarding seat-sharing and the IUML's growing assertiveness in state politics, making its 2026 performance a major point of speculation.
The Indian Union Muslim League was founded in 1948 in Madras, evolving from the pre-independence All India Muslim League. It established its political base in the Malabar region of Kerala, focusing on the interests of the Muslim community. The party became a permanent ally of the Congress-led United Democratic Front following the formation of Kerala state in 1956. Historically, the IUML has been a consistent performer, with its seat count in the Kerala Assembly serving as a reliable metric for the UDF's coalition strength. In the 2011 assembly elections, the IUML won 20 seats. This number dipped to 18 seats in the 2016 elections, where the LDF came to power. In the most recent 2021 elections, the IUML's tally increased to 22 seats, contributing significantly to a closely contested election where the LDF narrowly retained power. This historical pattern shows the IUML typically wins between 15 and 25 seats, with its performance often inversely related to the strength of the LDF's campaign in the Malabar region. The party has never won a majority on its own but has been indispensable for any UDF government formation.
The number of seats won by the IUML matters because it determines the political equilibrium in Kerala. As a crucial swing bloc within the UDF, the IUML's strength dictates the coalition's ability to form a government or mount an effective opposition. A strong showing for the IUML could propel the UDF to victory, leading to shifts in state policy, particularly regarding minority welfare, education, and infrastructure projects in northern Kerala. Conversely, a poor performance could weaken the UDF for another term, ensuring policy continuity under the LDF. Beyond immediate politics, the result is a barometer for the political mobilization and satisfaction of Kerala's large Muslim community. It also influences national politics by affecting the balance of power within the opposition INDIA bloc, of which both the Congress and IUML are members. The outcome will shape investment, development agendas, and social harmony in a state known for its high development indicators and complex political landscape.
As of late 2024, Kerala is in the middle of the incumbent LDF government's term, with elections due in early 2026. The IUML is actively consolidating its position within the UDF. Recent local body election results have been analyzed by all parties to gauge public sentiment. Political discourse is increasingly focusing on the upcoming seat-sharing negotiations within the UDF, where the IUML is expected to demand a stable or increased number of constituencies to contest. The party is also facing the dual challenge of defending its traditional base from the LDF and managing internal expectations from its younger leadership cadre.
The Indian Union Muslim League is a recognized Indian political party, primarily based in Kerala. It is a key member of the opposition United Democratic Front coalition and focuses on representing the interests of the Muslim community while engaging in broader secular politics within the Indian constitutional framework.
In the 2021 Kerala Legislative Assembly election, the Indian Union Muslim League won 22 out of the 140 seats. This was an improvement from winning 18 seats in the previous 2016 assembly election.
The IUML's strongest support base is in the northern district of Malappuram. It also holds significant influence in several constituencies within the districts of Kozhikode, Kannur, and Kasargod, collectively known as the Malabar region.
No, the IUML is not part of the national government led by the BJP as of 2024. It is a constituent of the opposition United Democratic Front in Kerala and is aligned with the opposition INDIA bloc at the national level.
The IUML is the second-largest party in the UDF coalition. Its seat count is critical because the UDF and the ruling LDF coalition are often separated by a narrow margin. A strong IUML performance can provide the seats needed for the UDF to secure a majority and form the government.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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