This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Name: How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
End: 2026-04-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Vol

$11.42K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.42K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.42K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	40%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	34%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	29%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 10 and 12 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	28%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	23%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$11.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 9, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If res"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $341
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $359
  DATA: [Yes: 39.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 10 and 12 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $145
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics