Name: Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 19?
End: 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z

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Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 19? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $15.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?	Poly	41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19?	Poly	31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 19?	Poly	18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19?	Poly	8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 19?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 19?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 19?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 19?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$15.21K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahren

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 19?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 19, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahren

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $48.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.34)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $728
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $963
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $803
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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