NY-08 House Election Winner
PM $32.9K
1
2
NY-08 House Election Winner
PM $32.9K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Hakeem Jeffries (D) at 96.7%.
Polymarket
- Hakeem Jeffries (D)96.7%
- Lewis Mizrahi (R)3.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $32.9K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers two Polymarket markets in the event "NY-08 House Election Winner" [1]. The contracts ask which party wins the NY-08 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the rules state will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Democratic Party contract and the Republican Party contract are separate markets, each with its own Yes and No outcomes [1].
The rules set the resolution method. The market resolves "based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting." If there is ambiguity, it resolves "based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1]. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-28T06:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-28T08:23:12Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In that snapshot, the Democratic Party market shows Yes at 0.975 and No at 0.025, while the Republican Party market shows Yes at 0.03 and No at 0.97 [1]. The two Yes prices are not designed to match exactly because they come from separate contracts, and this gap does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
Both markets list an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the listed close time for trading, not a resolution date. The evidence does not show when either contract will be resolved or when results will be called.
The sample includes both markets from the saved event, with marketCoverage reporting 2 of 2 markets and partialSample set to false [1]. The sample comes from one platform only. The provider's sample warning states that the listed markets do not establish that the provider covers every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence does not include trading volume or trader counts, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each position.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at their current levels, and it contains no recent reporting on the race. It also does not show any price history, so it cannot indicate direction of movement. Because the snapshot is from one observation time, prices may differ in later retrievals. Readers should compare the rules text closely, since the resolution sources and the caucus provision affect how a result is determined.
References
- Polymarket: NY-08 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a market titled NY-08 House Election Winner. The contract concerns the 2026 midterm election for the NY-08 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and it resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat. The provider's rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules describe how the winning party is determined. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus, measured at the same point [1]. The provider also explains how the result is determined. The market resolves based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The saved listing shows an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC and an active provider status [1]. That end time is a listed field in the provider data, not a statement that any election result has been announced. The saved market snapshot in this article was observed at 06:00 UTC on October 28, 2026. It includes two binary contracts from the same provider event: one asking whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, and one asking whether the Republican Party will win it [1]. Each contract shows a Yes price and a No price. Prices in the snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe only the moment they were recorded.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the NY-08 House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the provider's resolution rules [1]. Because the rules tie the party to ballot listing or caucus intent at the time House elections are conclusively called, the contract depends on how the outcome is ultimately called and documented, not only on a preliminary tally [1]. Traders and readers can use the listed prices to see how the market valued each party in one saved snapshot, but the price is a snapshot and not a confirmed forecast of the election.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract covers?
The provider's rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
How does the contract decide which party a candidate belongs to?
A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is placed in the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with, measured at that same time [1].
What sources decide the outcome if the result is unclear?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Does a price of 0.975 mean the Democratic Party has a 97.5 percent chance of winning?
No. The saved snapshot shows a Yes price of 0.975 for the Democratic Party contract as of the observation time [1]. Prices in this snapshot are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed likelihood of the outcome.
Does the snapshot show every possible outcome for this race?
The saved listing includes two binary markets from one provider event, a Democratic contract and a Republican contract [1]. The provider's sample description does not establish that all possible real-world outcomes are listed, so the snapshot should not be treated as a complete field of outcomes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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