Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?

Total Volume

$8.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?

Vol

$8.55K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.55K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.55K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$8.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Nov 2026 If Chuck Edwards leaves as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Chuck Edwards must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leavin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 2026

If Chuck Edwards leaves as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Chuck Edwards must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leavin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Chuck Edwards leaves as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Chuck Edwards must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the ro"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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