GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Name: Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?
End: 2026-11-02T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.21K

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Markets

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Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Vol

$1.21K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.21K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.21K

100%

Polymarket leads

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2 markets tracked

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress	Poly	31%
Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$1.21K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qual

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 2, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. 

Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qual

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an indep"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $511
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $698
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Volume$1.21K

Markets2

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POLYMARKET

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party between November 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, and January 3, 2027, at 11:59AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will j

POLYMARKET

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an indep

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58d 1h remaining

Nov 02, 2026 11:59 PM

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20¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/F4olJq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?"></iframe>

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Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

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Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

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Events (1)

Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Markets (2)

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

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Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fetterman leaves the Democrats...?

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

Fetterman leaves the Democrats between the midterms and convening of new Congress

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?

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