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Victor Wembanyama Quadruple Double If Victor Wembanyama records a Quadruple Double in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers official Pro Basketball regular season and postseason games only. The All-Star Game and any exhibition games are excluded. This market will close and expire after event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Victor Wembanyama recording a quadruple-double in the 2025-26 NBA season. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading near 17%, while on Kalshi, they are priced around 12%. This 5% spread indicates a consensus view that the event is unlikely, with an approximate 15% aggregate chance. In plain terms, the market sees about a 1-in-7 possibility, suggesting it is a rare but non-negligible outcome given Wembanyama's unique skill set.
The primary factor suppressing the odds is the extreme rarity of the quadruple-double in NBA history, achieved only four times officially. The statistical hurdle is immense, requiring elite performance in four of five major categories (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks) within a single game. While Wembanyama is the league's most prolific shot-blocker and a strong rebounder and scorer, accumulating 10 assists or 10 steals presents the largest barrier. His career-high assist total is 9, and he has never recorded more than 6 steals in a game. The market is pricing in his historic two-way impact but acknowledges that the specific alignment of stats in one game is exceptionally rare, even for him.
The odds could shift upward with an early-season surge in Wembanyama's playmaking role or a specific game where he flirts with the milestone. A game where he accumulates 7 or 8 assists or steals by halftime would likely cause a sharp, temporary spike in market probability. Conversely, an injury that costs him significant games would drive the price toward zero. The market will remain sensitive to his usage, particularly if the San Antonio Spurs intentionally run more offense through him as a facilitator. Key dates to watch are early season matchups against fast-paced, high-possession teams that create more statistical opportunities.
A meaningful 5% price discrepancy exists between Polymarket (17%) and Kalshi (12%). This spread could be driven by differing trader demographics or liquidity variations, with Polymarket's crypto-native user base potentially taking a more speculative view on tail-risk events. While this creates a theoretical arbitrage opportunity, the costs of bridging funds and the relative illiquidity of the "No" shares on either platform make execution difficult. The spread may narrow as the season progresses and more concrete statistical trends emerge, aligning the platforms.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether French basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama will achieve a quadruple double during the 2025-26 professional basketball season. A quadruple double is one of the rarest statistical achievements in basketball, requiring a player to record double-digit totals in four of the five major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks) in a single game. The market specifically covers official regular season and postseason games in the National Basketball Association (NBA), excluding exhibition contests like the All-Star Game. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Wembanyama accomplishes this feat before the market closes. Victor Wembanyama, the 7-foot-4 center for the San Antonio Spurs, entered the NBA in 2023 as the most hyped prospect since LeBron James. His unique combination of size, skill, and defensive instincts immediately made him a historic statistical producer. As a rookie in the 2023-24 season, he led the league in blocks per game and became the first player in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points, 700 rebounds, 250 assists, 250 blocks, and 100 three-pointers in a single season. His ability to impact the game across multiple categories makes the quadruple double a plausible, albeit extraordinarily difficult, milestone. The interest in this market stems from Wembanyama's unprecedented statistical profile and the extreme rarity of the quadruple double. Only four players in NBA history have officially recorded a quadruple double, with the last occurrence coming over 30 years ago. Bettors and analysts are evaluating whether Wembanyama's generational talent and all-around game can overcome the immense difficulty of this achievement. His development trajectory, role within the Spurs' system, and health are all critical factors influencing the probability of this event. Recent developments have only fueled speculation. During his rookie season, Wembanyama posted several near-quadruple double performances, including a game where he tallied 27 points, 14 rebounds, 10 blocks, and 5 assists. As he gains experience and his team improves, his opportunities to fill the stat sheet may increase. This market encapsulates a broader conversation about Wembanyama's potential to redefine what is possible on a basketball court and whether he can accomplish a feat that has eluded even the greatest players of the modern era.
The quadruple double is among the most exclusive statistical clubs in professional sports. In NBA history, only four players have recorded an official quadruple double. The first was Nate Thurmond on October 18, 1974, in his first game for the Chicago Bulls, posting 22 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and 12 blocks. Alvin Robertson achieved the only quadruple double including steals on February 18, 1986, with 20 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals. The two most relevant precedents for Wembanyama are centers Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. Olajuwon's 1990 performance for the Houston Rockets showcased the defensive path to a quadruple double, anchored by 11 blocks. Robinson's 1994 feat for the San Antonio Spurs is particularly instructive, as it occurred within the same franchise and system Wembanyama now inhabits. It has been over three decades since Robinson's achievement, highlighting the extreme rarity of the event. Several near-misses have occurred in the modern era, most notably by players like Draymond Green, who in 2017 recorded a stat line of 4 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, and 10 steals, falling short only in scoring. The evolution of the game towards positionless basketball and more versatile big men has increased theoretical opportunities, yet the actual achievement remains elusive. The historical context underscores that Wembanyama is attempting something that has not been done in the 21st century, against competition that is arguably more skilled and strategic than in the 1990s.
Beyond the immediate betting interest, Wembanyama achieving a quadruple double would be a landmark moment in basketball history, cementing his status as a once-in-a-generation talent capable of statistical feats thought to be relics of a past era. It would validate the scouting projections that labeled him the best prospect since LeBron James and could shift the paradigm for how a dominant big man is expected to impact the game. For the NBA, such an event would generate massive global media attention, highlight reel footage for years, and bolster the league's narrative of continuous evolution and superstar-driven excitement. The achievement would have significant cultural and economic ramifications. It would instantly become a defining moment of the 2025-26 season, boosting merchandise sales, television ratings for Spurs games, and the value of memorabilia associated with the event. For the city of San Antonio and the Spurs franchise, it would be a historic milestone linking their past glory with a promising future. For basketball analysts and historians, it would reignite debates about the greatest all-around performances in league history and potentially influence how future two-way stars are developed and evaluated.
As of the start of the 2024-25 NBA season, Victor Wembanyama is entering his second year with the San Antonio Spurs. The team is expected to improve its roster and offensive system to better utilize his talents. During the 2024 offseason, Wembanyama focused on adding strength and refining his playmaking skills, both of which could increase his assist potential. The Spurs' acquisition of veteran point guard Chris Paul is seen as a move that could help organize the offense and create more efficient opportunities for Wembanyama to score and facilitate. Analysts are closely monitoring his early-season performances for signs of increased statistical output, particularly in assists, which is considered the biggest hurdle to a quadruple double.
A quadruple double occurs when a player records double-digit totals (10 or more) in four of the five major statistical categories in a single game: points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. It is one of the rarest achievements in the NBA, with only four official occurrences in league history.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Victor Wembanyama Quadruple Double If Victor Wembanyama records a Quadruple Double in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers official Pro Basketball regular season and postseason games only. The All-Star Game and any exhibition games are excluded. This market will close and expire after event occurs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Victor Wembanyama records a quadruple-double in any game during the 2025-2026 NBA regular season or post-season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A 'quadruple-double' is defined as, in a single game, achieving double digits in four of the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as Victor Wembanyama is confirmed to have recorded a quadruple double. Stat corrections or other post


If Victor Wembanyama records a Quadruple Double in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Season, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers official Pro Basketball regular season and postseason games only. The All-Star Game and any exhibition games are excluded. Early close condition:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Victor Wembanyama records a quadruple-double in any game during the 2025-2026 NBA regular season or post-season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A 'quadruple-double' is defined as, in a single game, achieving double digits in four of the following c
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