Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

Name: Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
End: 2026-08-28T20:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.36K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

Vol

$9.36K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.36K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.36K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?	Poly	91%
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?	Poly	90%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$9.36K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 28, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. 

Strikes a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $71
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 131.87)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 21, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 28, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics