Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET" in the Crypto category [1]. Per the stated rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with other HYPE prices or venues would therefore concern a different measure.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T20:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a resolution that has occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T22:42:33.963Z [1]. The prices below describe the observation time only. They are not live quotes for the current moment.
At observation, "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are the two outcomes of this one contract, so the snapshot shows a near-even split between them. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not indicate how many traders hold either position. The saved volume figures are not included in this evidence, so no liquidity conclusion can be drawn.
The saved event contains one market, and the coverage record marks the sample as complete for that event [1]. No other contract for this window was supplied, so there is nothing to compare it against, and no cross-platform or cross-contract pricing conclusion is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices were at these levels, nor whether they have changed since the observation time. It does not include the price at the start of the 4:00PM to 4:15PM ET range, so the threshold the TWAP must meet is not known from this record. It also does not establish the contract's final outcome, because the listed end time is after the retrieval time. Whether the provider will report a resolution, and when, is not stated in the supplied material.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on Hyperliquid, a crypto asset, from the Polymarket event titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the asset's price movement over a fixed 15-minute window will finish higher or lower than where it started. According to the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measure is not a spot price at a single instant. It is an average over the window, compared against the starting price. That distinction matters for how the outcome is determined. A price that rises early and then falls back may still produce an "Up" result if the average over the window stays at or above the opening level, and a price that ends higher than it started can still resolve "Down" if the average is lower [1]. The rules name a specific resolution source. The market resolves using information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the HYPE/USD pair, not any other data source or spot market [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore treat that stream, rather than prices quoted elsewhere, as the reference for resolution. The event's listed end time is 2026-10-26T20:15:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 4:00PM-4:15PM ET window named in the title [1]. That is a contract rule, not a record that the window has already been measured. The saved provider record shows the event as active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract gives a yes or no style answer on whether an average price over a 15-minute window stays at or above the window's starting price. It is useful for understanding how a short-horizon price question is defined: the window, the averaging method, the reference price and the named data stream all determine the result [1]. Because the rules use a time-weighted average rather than a single price print, the result depends on the path of prices across the whole window, not only the start and finish [1]. The saved price snapshot at the observation time listed in the record showed "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves "Up" if the time-weighted average price of HYPE/USD over the window named in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price feed is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say prices from other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
When does the measurement window close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T20:15:00Z, matching the 4:15PM ET close in the market title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.