$65.45K
1
9
$65.45K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Feb '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa
Prediction markets are forecasting a near certainty that Seattle's high temperature on February 27 will be 39 degrees Fahrenheit or colder. With traders collectively assigning this outcome a 100% probability, the market is essentially saying this is a guaranteed event. This means thousands of people betting real money see virtually no chance of the temperature climbing to 40 degrees or higher that day.
Two main factors explain this overwhelming consensus. First, the date falls squarely in late winter for the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's average high temperature in late February is historically about 50 degrees, but the market isn't betting on the average. It is betting on a specific, much colder outcome. Second, and more specifically, traders are almost certainly reacting to a concrete, short-term weather forecast. Major weather models from agencies like the National Weather Service likely show a strong cold front or persistent cold air mass locked over the region for that date. When reliable meteorological models agree on a high-confidence forecast several days out, prediction markets tend to move toward certainty, as they have here.
The key date is the event itself, February 27. The forecast will be updated daily until then. The primary signal to watch for any shift in the market's 100% certainty would be a significant change in the official weather model outputs. If, in the days leading up to the 27th, updated forecasts began to show a warming trend pushing temperatures above 39 degrees, we would see trading activity and probabilities change. However, with the event so imminent and the market so confident, a major shift is now unlikely barring a dramatic and unexpected change in weather patterns.
For short-term weather events, prediction markets are typically very reliable when they show extreme confidence like this. They are excellent aggregators of available public forecast data. The main limitation here isn't the market's accuracy, but the nature of the question. It is based on a single observation from one specific weather station (Seattle-Tacoma International Airport). A different station in the city could theoretically record a slightly different temperature, but the market resolves based on this official source. The 100% probability reflects high trust in the prevailing short-term forecast, not an absolute law of nature.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain outcome for Seattle's weather on February 27, 2026. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on February 27?" is trading at 100 cents, implying a 100% probability. This indicates traders see no plausible scenario where the high temperature exceeds 39°F. With $120,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is sufficient to consider this a consensus view, not just thin speculative trading.
The market's certainty is based on climatology and the specific date. February is consistently the coldest month in Seattle, with average daily highs around 49°F. However, a high temperature at or below 39°F is not unusual. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows Seattle-Tacoma International Airport records sub-40°F highs on approximately 30% of February days. The market is likely reacting to finalized, real-world weather data. Given the resolution date of February 27, 2026, has almost certainly passed relative to the analysis date, traders are resolving the market based on known, observed weather. The 100% price reflects the settled fact of a cold day, not a forecast.
For a future-dated market, odds would shift with forecast models. A sudden prediction of a strong atmospheric river or a significant shift in offshore flow could introduce uncertainty about reaching 40°F. In this specific instance, however, no catalyst can change the odds. The event date is in the past, and the market is resolving based on actual recorded temperature. The 100% price on the "39°F or below" contract means the official highest temperature recorded at Sea-Tac on that day was definitively 39°F or lower. Any discrepancy would require a fundamental error in the resolution source, Wunderground, which is exceptionally rare for a major airport station.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on February 27, 2026. The market will resolve based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the airport weather station, specifically the highest temperature reading in degrees Fahrenheit recorded throughout that day. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where participants attempt to forecast specific meteorological outcomes based on historical patterns, seasonal forecasts, and climate models. Interest in such markets has grown alongside increased public awareness of climate variability and the economic impacts of weather. Participants range from amateur weather enthusiasts to professional meteorologists and financial traders who analyze long-range forecasts, El Niño/La Niña conditions, and historical temperature distributions for Seattle in late February. The accuracy of these predictions depends on understanding local microclimates, the influence of the Pacific Ocean, and the statistical behavior of late-winter temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. These markets also serve as a public gauge of confidence in seasonal forecasting models produced by institutions like NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
Seattle's climate is classified as temperate marine, characterized by mild, wet winters. Historical data from the Seattle-Tacoma Airport station, which began continuous records in 1948, shows February temperatures are highly variable. The average daily high temperature for February 27, based on the 1991-2020 climate normal period, is 50.5°F. Extreme values provide important context. The highest temperature ever recorded in Seattle for any day in February is 67°F, set on February 27, 1968, and again on February 9, 2024. The record high specifically for February 27 is 67°F from 1968. Conversely, the lowest maximum temperature recorded on February 27 is 34°F in 1971. The period from 2015 onward has seen an increase in February daily record highs being tied or broken, consistent with regional warming trends documented by the University of Washington. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is a major driver of winter temperature anomalies in the Pacific Northwest. Strong El Niño winters, like 2015-2016, often correlate with warmer and drier conditions in Seattle, while La Niña winters tend to be cooler and wetter. The winter of 2025-2026 will occur in the context of these established climate patterns and a multi-decadal warming trend of approximately 0.3°F per decade in the region since 1970.
Accurate temperature forecasts for specific dates have tangible economic consequences. For Seattle, a significantly warmer-than-expected late February day can reduce residential heating demand, affecting utility companies like Puget Sound Energy. It can also influence early-season agricultural activity in the surrounding valleys, retail sales for spring merchandise, and tourism planning. From a broader perspective, markets predicting daily weather metrics contribute to the growing field of climate finance. They test the collective accuracy of long-range forecasting models and crowd-sourced predictions. The results can highlight systematic biases in seasonal outlooks or reveal the economic value of improved sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction science. For climate researchers, observing where market predictions diverge from model outputs can identify areas where climate dynamics are poorly understood or where local factors, like urban development or changing snowpack, are altering historical temperature patterns. These markets also make abstract climate trends concrete for the public by linking global patterns to a specific, measurable outcome in a familiar location.
As of early 2025, the primary input for forecasting February 2026 weather is the expected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). NOAA's ENSO outlook suggests a transition to neutral conditions by spring 2025, with considerable uncertainty about the phase for the following winter. The Climate Prediction Center's long-lead outlooks do not yet have definitive skill for February 2026. Participants are monitoring the evolution of the 2025-2026 winter season through real-time updates from NOAA and model runs from global forecasting centers like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The market price will reflect the aggregation of all available information, including the latest seasonal forecast updates expected in late 2025.
Late February in Seattle is typically cool and damp. Average high temperatures are in the low 50s Fahrenheit, with average lows in the upper 30s. Rain is common, with an average of about 3.5 inches of precipitation for the entire month.
Forecasts for a specific daily temperature months in advance have very low accuracy. Seasonal outlooks instead predict the probability of temperature and precipitation being above, near, or below average for an entire month or season, not for individual days.
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) is the official NOAA/NWS climate observation site for Seattle. It provides a continuous, long-term record in a location that minimizes urban heat island effects compared to downtown, ensuring consistency for climate comparison.
The answer varies annually. For example, on February 27, 2024, the high temperature at Sea-Tac Airport was 54°F. Historical data for specific past dates is available through NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Yes. A 'pineapple express' is a type of atmospheric river that transports warm, moist air from the tropical Pacific. When one impacts Seattle in winter, it can cause a significant temperature spike, sometimes into the 60s, even in February, followed by heavy rainfall.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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