$34.16K
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11
$34.16K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is pu
Prediction markets currently assign a 63% probability that Amazon (AMZN) will close between $235 and $240 on Friday, January 16, 2026. This price bracket is the leading outcome among 11 available ranges. A 63% chance indicates the market views this range as the most likely scenario, but with significant uncertainty given the thin trading volume of only $27,000. The second most probable outcome, according to current pricing, is a close below $235.
The market's focus on the $235-$240 range reflects Amazon's recent trading history and key technical levels. In the weeks leading into this expiration, AMZN has consistently demonstrated strong support near the $230-$235 zone, a critical area that has acted as both resistance and support over previous quarters. The assigned probability suggests traders anticipate that Amazon will hold above this foundational support but struggle to break meaningfully above the psychological $240 resistance level without a new catalyst. This pricing also incorporates typical early January trading patterns, where institutional rebalancing and post-holiday volume can lead to range-bound behavior in major tech stocks.
The primary catalyst that could shift these odds is the imminent release of quarterly retail sales data and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures scheduled for the morning of January 16. A significant beat or miss on these macroeconomic indicators could drive broad market momentum, directly impacting Amazon's price. Additionally, any after-hours news on January 15 regarding Amazon Web Services market share or regulatory developments could cause a pre-market gap on the 16th, pushing the stock outside the predicted range. Given the low liquidity in this prediction market, a moderate surge in actual stock market volume could lead to rapid repricing of these contracts.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the closing price of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) stock for the trading week ending January 12. Participants are wagering on the exact price bracket within which Amazon's official closing share price will fall on the final trading session of that week, typically a Friday. The resolution is based on the official closing price published by the Nasdaq exchange, with specific rules for shortened sessions and tie-breaking procedures. Amazon's stock price is a critical barometer for the technology sector and the broader e-commerce industry, reflecting investor sentiment on consumer spending, cloud computing growth, and the company's strategic initiatives. Recent interest in Amazon's weekly performance stems from its position as a component of major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100, making its price movements influential on overall market direction. Analysts and traders closely monitor weekly closes for technical analysis patterns and to gauge momentum ahead of quarterly earnings reports, with the January period often setting the tone for the year following holiday season results.
Amazon's journey as a public company began with its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on May 15, 1997, at a split-adjusted price of approximately $1.50 per share. For over two decades, the stock experienced monumental growth, driven by relentless expansion from an online bookstore into e-commerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. This growth established a historical pattern of high volatility around key events. Weekly price movements have frequently been swayed by quarterly earnings reports, which Amazon has consistently delivered since Q1 2001. For instance, a single-day drop of over 14% occurred on April 29, 2022, following a disappointing Q1 2022 earnings report that revealed slowing growth. Conversely, the stock surged more than 13% in a day on February 2, 2024, after better-than-expected Q4 2023 results. The week ending January 12 falls in a period historically sensitive to 'January Effect' trading patterns and follows the crucial holiday shopping season, whose results are often previewed through data from the National Retail Federation and Amazon's own press releases. Past January weekly performances have set trajectories for the stock's performance in the first quarter.
The weekly closing price of Amazon stock matters because it serves as a real-time referendum on the health of the global consumer economy and the technology sector. As one of the world's largest companies by market capitalization, its performance influences trillions of dollars in indexed and mutual funds, directly impacting the retirement savings of millions of individuals. A sustained move in Amazon's stock can shift the weighting of major indices, forcing passive funds to rebalance their holdings, which creates ripple effects across the entire stock market. Furthermore, Amazon's price is a bellwether for business investment in cloud infrastructure and digital advertising, two critical growth engines for the modern economy. Significant weekly changes can signal changing expectations for corporate IT spending and digital marketing budgets, affecting a wide ecosystem of suppliers, partners, and competitors.
As of early January 2024, Amazon's stock is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, reflecting investor optimism following strong Q3 2023 results and a broader market rally in technology stocks. The immediate focus for the week ending January 12 will be on macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and impact growth stocks. Additionally, preliminary data and analyst commentary regarding 2023 holiday season sales will be actively incorporated into price models. There are no scheduled Amazon-specific corporate events, like earnings, for that week, making broader market trends and sector rotation key drivers of the weekly close.
Regular trading hours for Amazon (AMZN) on the Nasdaq exchange are from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, Monday through Friday. The official closing price used for market resolution is the last traded price at 4:00 PM ET on the final trading day of the week.
The official closing price is published by the Nasdaq exchange and disseminated by major financial data providers like Bloomberg, Reuters, and Refinitiv. Investors can also find it on the Nasdaq website or through their brokerage platform's quote system for AMZN.
A stock split changes the number of shares and the price per share proportionally but does not change the company's market capitalization. For prediction markets, the adjusted, post-split closing price is the relevant figure. Amazon's last stock split was a 20-for-1 split effective June 6, 2022.
If a trading halt is in effect at the market close on Friday, the resolution typically uses the last official trade price before the halt. If the halt lasts the entire session, the exchange may use a specific methodology to determine an official closing price, which would then be used for resolution.
No, after-hours trading does not affect the official closing price. The resolution is based solely on the price at the 4:00 PM ET market close. After-hours price movement reflects sentiment for the next trading session but is not part of the official weekly close.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
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| Poly | 65% |
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