Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
PM $9.7K
1
1
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
PM $9.7K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 12.5% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes12.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $9.7K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract asks whether Canada will have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year. The resolution text states that it "will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive)" [1]. The title says "since 2016," but the rule text uses January 2017 as the starting point, so readers should rely on the rule text for the exact test.
The rules also specify that "only the initial figure released for each month will qualify," and that revisions "will not count toward this market's resolution" [1]. If no data for a specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled, the market "will resolve based on data from the last available month" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-02-16T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution date. The rules say the market "will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T01:31:54.221Z [1]. It shows a "Yes" price of 0.0695 and a "No" price of 0.9305 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved market is recorded as active, and the sample includes the one market saved for this event. The sample is not partial, but the saved event is not a complete list of every possible real-world outcome.
Volume is not included in this excerpt, so no conclusion about liquidity or trader participation can be drawn. The prices reflect only the moment of observation and should not be presented as current after that time.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do. It also does not include the Statistics Canada data themselves, any release schedule beyond what the rules describe, or any comparison with other platforms. Because only one market is saved, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. A price difference between similar contracts elsewhere would not by itself show an opportunity, since wording, resolution sources, and close times can differ.
References
- Polymarket: Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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