Jobs numbers in October 2026? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	80%
Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	72%
Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	68%
Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	61%
Will above 40000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	56%
Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	52%
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	47%
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will above 125000 jobs be added in October 2026?	Kalshi	20%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jobs numbers in October 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Oct 2026

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above X as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 90000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data rele"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.35M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $789
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will above 40000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $346
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $956
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will above 125000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $465
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $182
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 5, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

51¢

Kalshi

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Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

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Events (1)

Jobs numbers in October 2026?

Markets (13)

Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?

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Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

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Jobs numbers in October 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?

Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026?

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