$39.05K
2
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$39.05K
2
16
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Oscars - Hamnet If Hamnet has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently give the film Hamnet roughly a 4 in 5 chance of winning exactly one Academy Award at the upcoming Oscars. This is the clear favorite outcome among traders. The chance it wins no awards is seen as less likely, about 1 in 5. The collective view is that Hamnet is almost certain to be recognized, but probably not as a major, multi-award winner.
This forecast is shaped by the film’s profile and typical Oscar voting patterns. Hamnet is an acclaimed literary adaptation with strong performances, making it a solid contender in specific categories like Best Actress or Best Adapted Screenplay. However, it is not considered the frontrunner for the top prize of Best Picture. Oscar history shows that many well-regarded films in this position often secure a single win, avoiding a shutout but not sweeping the night.
The betting reflects a specific view of the race. Traders likely see votes for Hamnet consolidating behind one of its strengths, such as a lead performance, rather than spreading across multiple categories. This pattern would result in exactly one win.
The final and most important event is the 98th Academy Awards ceremony itself, which will be held in about three weeks. All predictions will resolve based on that night’s results. In the lead-up, major industry guild awards like the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) or Writers Guild (WGA) ceremonies could signal strength in specific categories. If Hamnet wins a key guild award, it might slightly increase the perceived odds of a win in that corresponding Oscar category, though the market’s focus on a single award seems firmly set.
For niche questions like the exact number of awards a specific film wins, prediction markets can be a useful gauge of informed industry sentiment. The people trading often follow awards season closely. However, the low total amount wagered on this question, about $39 thousand, means it is a thinner market. This can sometimes lead to prices that are more volatile or less precise than for Best Picture odds. The general direction—that Hamnet is favored for one win—is probably a good read of the consensus, but the exact 79% probability should be seen as an estimate, not a certainty.
Prediction markets currently assign a 79% probability that Hamnet will win exactly one Academy Award at the 98th Oscars. This price, found on the "Exactly 1" contract across platforms, indicates a strong consensus that the film will secure a single Oscar, likely in a major category. The "Exactly 0" contract trades near 15%, while contracts for two or more wins are priced below 5% each. A 79% chance means traders view a solitary win as the most probable outcome, but the 15% chance of a shutout remains a meaningful risk.
The pricing reflects the film's position as a major awards contender adapted from a celebrated novel, yet one facing stiff competition. Hamnet is widely expected to secure a nomination for Best Actress for its lead, a category where it could be the frontrunner. However, markets price low odds for multiple wins because other categories like Best Picture or Best Adapted Screenplay appear more competitive. Historical patterns for literary adaptations that are actor-driven, such as The Wife or Philomena, show they often win only in acting categories. Current trading suggests a similar path for Hamnet, where a single high-profile award is the base case, but a sweep is not anticipated.
The odds will shift significantly after the official Oscar nominations are announced on January 17, 2026. If Hamnet underperforms, securing fewer nominations than expected in key categories like Best Picture or Best Adapted Screenplay, the probability for "Exactly 0" will rise sharply. Conversely, if it earns a surprise nomination in a technical category like Best Cinematography or Best Costume Design, the odds for two or more wins could increase. The final precursor awards from guilds like SAG and the DGA in February will also adjust the calculus, particularly for its chances in the Best Actress race.
A 4.6% price spread exists between Polymarket and Kalshi, with Polymarket prices consistently higher. For the "Exactly 1" contract, this spread represents an arbitrage opportunity, though thin liquidity across the 16 markets ($39k total volume) makes executing large trades difficult. The spread likely persists because Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be more speculative on awards outcomes, while Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract slightly more conservative traders. This divergence is common for long-dated cultural event markets with limited volume.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential Oscar success of the film adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's 2020 novel 'Hamnet.' The market allows participants to speculate on the exact number of Academy Awards the film might win at the 98th Oscars ceremony, scheduled for March 2025. The novel, which won the 2020 Women's Prize for Fiction, reimagines the life of William Shakespeare's son Hamnet and his wife Agnes (Anne Hathaway). Its adaptation into a major film, directed by Chloé Zhao, has generated significant awards season buzz since its announcement. Interest in this market stems from the project's prestigious creative team, the novel's critical acclaim, and the historical tendency for literary adaptations and period dramas to perform well at the Oscars. The market will resolve based on the official results from the 98th Academy Awards.
Literary adaptations have a long history of success at the Academy Awards. In the 21st century alone, adaptations of novels have won Best Picture 13 times between 2000 and 2024, including 'Nomadland,' '12 Years a Slave,' and 'The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.' Period dramas and biographical films about artists are also an Oscar staple. 'Shakespeare in Love' won 7 Oscars in 1999, including Best Picture, demonstrating the Academy's affinity for stories about the playwright's world. The film 'Hamnet' enters this tradition, but with a focus on his family life rather than his theatrical career. Director Chloé Zhao's previous film, 'Nomadland,' won three Oscars in 2021: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. This precedent suggests the Academy respects her filmmaking, which could benefit 'Hamnet.' The 98th Oscars will follow the pattern of recent ceremonies where streaming and traditional studio releases compete directly, with campaigns beginning in earnest after fall festival premieres.
The performance of 'Hamnet' at the Oscars has implications for the film industry's economic and creative priorities. A major win would validate high-budget, prestige literary adaptations at a time when theatrical releases face competition from streaming content. It could influence studio greenlight decisions, encouraging more investments in adult-oriented historical drama. For the actors and creatives involved, Oscar wins or nominations can significantly elevate careers, leading to higher salaries and greater creative control on future projects. The broader cultural impact lies in the film's potential to renew public interest in Shakespeare's life and legacy from a domestic perspective, contrasting with the more familiar narratives of his plays. It also represents a high-profile project led by women, with a female director adapting a female author's work about a historical woman, which could affect perceptions of what stories are considered awards-worthy.
As of late 2024, 'Hamnet' is in post-production following principal photography that concluded in mid-2024. No official release date has been announced, but industry speculation suggests a late 2025 theatrical release to qualify for the 98th Academy Awards. The film is expected to debut at a major fall film festival, such as Telluride, Venice, or Toronto, in 2025, which is the traditional launchpad for Oscar campaigns. Early, unofficial reports from test screenings have not been made public. The official Oscars campaign, managed by Searchlight Pictures, will likely begin in earnest after the film's festival premiere, when critics and awards groups see the final product.
The film adapts Maggie O'Farrell's novel, which is a fictional account of the life of Agnes (Anne) Hathaway, wife of William Shakespeare, and the death of their young son, Hamnet, in 1596. The story explores grief, family, and artistic creation in 16th-century England.
The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 2, 2025. The eligibility period for films is from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, but 'Hamnet' is targeting a 2025 release for the following year's ceremony.
No, a trailer has not been released as of late 2024. Marketing materials typically launch several months before a film's theatrical release, which for 'Hamnet' is anticipated in late 2025.
Based on its creative team and subject matter, potential categories include Best Picture, Best Director for Chloé Zhao, Best Actress for Jessie Buckley, Best Actor for Paul Mescal, Best Adapted Screenplay, and several technical categories like Best Cinematography and Best Costume Design.
It is based on historical figures—William Shakespeare, his wife Anne Hathaway, and their son Hamnet, who died at age 11. However, the novel and film are works of historical fiction that imagine the emotional and domestic lives of these figures, as very few concrete details are known from the historical record.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
10 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 79% | 2% |
| 11% | 10% | 2% |
| 5% | 4% | 1% |
| 7% | 3% | 4% |
| 2% | 2% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
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Oscars - Hamnet If Hamnet has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Hamnet" has been nominated for 8 Oscars. This market will resolve according to the number of Oscars won by the film "Hamnet" or by people for their roles in that film at the 98th Academy Awards. If for any reason
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Hamnet" has be
If Hamnet has won exactly 1 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Hamnet" has be
If Hamnet has won exactly 2 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Hamnet" has be
If Hamnet has won exactly 0 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Hamnet" has be
If Hamnet has won exactly 3 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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