Name: UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
End: 2026-04-12T03:59:59.999Z

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UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the fight be won by submission?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	100%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	100%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	Poly	0%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	0%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%
Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%
Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	0%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Kelvin Gastelum" if Kelvin Gastelum is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vicente Luque at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Vicente Luque" if Vicente Luque is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be off

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Kelvin Gastelum" if Kelvin Gastelum is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vicente Luque at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Vicente Luque" if Vicente Luque is officially declared the winner.

If the fight "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $524.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $316.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.65)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $519.6K
  DATA: [Kelvin Gastelum: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [Vicente Luque: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Over: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $949
  DATA: [Over: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [Under: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $228
  DATA: [Over: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [Under: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

22¢

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UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

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Will the fight be won by submission?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

Markets (9)

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?

Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?

Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?

Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the fight be won by submission?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?

Will Kelvin Gastelum win by KO or TKO?

Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?

Will Vicente Luque win by KO or TKO?

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