Maine Republican Governor nominee? | PredictPedia

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Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

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Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	64%
Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	23%
Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	7%
Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	4%
Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	2%
Will Owen McCarthy be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Robert Wessels be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trey Stewart be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Travis Mills be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Peter Cianchette be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mikek Soboleski be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Laurel Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jason Levesque be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Shawn Moody be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	1%
Will Bruce Poliquin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	0%
Will Rick Bennett be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	0%
Will James Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 23, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Maine Republican Governor nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If David Jones wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after David Jones wins the party's nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trey Stewart be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Travis Mills be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shawn Moody be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rick Bennett be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Peter Cianchette be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Owen McCarthy be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mikek Soboleski be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Laurel Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will James Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Bruce Poliquin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Robert Wessels be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Jason Levesque be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

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Events (1)

Maine Republican Governor nominee?

Markets (0)

Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Maine Republican Governor nominee?

Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Will David Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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