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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets show traders are nearly evenly split on whether Robert Charles will become Maine's Republican nominee for governor. The current price suggests a roughly 44% chance, which is essentially a coin flip. This means the collective intelligence of these markets does not see Charles as a clear front-runner or a longshot. It reflects a high degree of uncertainty about the final outcome of the Republican primary, which will be decided in about three and a half months.
Two main factors explain the even odds. First, Maine's Republican primaries can be unpredictable, often featuring competition between more traditional conservatives and candidates with stronger grassroots appeal. Robert Charles, a former staffer for Senator Susan Collins, is seen as part of the party's establishment wing. His path is not guaranteed in a primary where other factions may rally behind a different candidate.
Second, the primary field is still taking shape. While Charles is a declared candidate, other potential contenders have not fully entered the race or gained traction. Markets are pricing in the real possibility that another candidate could emerge as a stronger alternative. The relatively low total amount of money wagered on all Maine governor nominee questions indicates this is a niche race that hasn't yet captured broad national attention from traders.
The Republican primary election is scheduled for June 10, 2025. The most important signals before then will be the candidate filing deadline, expected in early March 2025, which will finalize the competitive field. Watch for major endorsements from figures like Senator Susan Collins or former Governor Paul LePage, as these could solidify a front-runner. Polling data from Maine, though sparse for this early primary, will also move market prices once it becomes available.
Prediction markets have a solid record in forecasting primary outcomes, especially as election day approaches and more information becomes public. However, for races this far out with a still-forming field, prices can be volatile and more speculative. The current coin-flip odds are less a firm forecast and more an accurate reflection of the genuine uncertainty that exists at this early stage. The reliability will increase significantly after the candidate filing deadline in March.
Prediction markets assign a low probability to Robert Charles becoming the 2026 Maine Republican gubernatorial nominee. On Polymarket, shares for Charles trade at 44 cents, implying a 44% chance. The same contract on Kalshi trades at 38 cents, a 38% probability. This 6-point spread is significant for a political market. A mid-40s probability means traders see Charles as a plausible contender but not the clear frontrunner. The market is effectively a coin flip against his nomination. Total volume across all candidates is just $39,000, indicating low liquidity and high sensitivity to new information.
Robert Charles is a former state senator who lost the 2022 Republican primary for Maine's 2nd Congressional District. His current pricing reflects his established political base against a field with no declared heavyweights. The absence of a clear favorite like former Governor Paul LePage, who is term-limited, creates an open primary. Charles's odds are tempered by Maine's political history. The state party has recently nominated more centrist candidates like Susan Collins for federal office, suggesting a potential preference for a moderate profile in a general election against a likely strong Democratic opponent.
The primary is over two years away, so these odds are highly speculative. The largest catalyst will be official candidate declarations, expected in late 2025. If a high-profile Republican like former Congressman Bruce Poliquin or a current statewide officeholder enters the race, Charles's probability would likely fall sharply. Conversely, if he secures early endorsements from county party committees or builds a substantial fundraising advantage, his market price could rise. Polling data, once available, will immediately redirect market sentiment. The thin liquidity means any credible news will cause large price swings.
The 44% price on Polymarket versus 38% on Kalshi presents a clear 6-percentage-point arbitrage opportunity. This spread exists because the markets are isolated; traders cannot directly exchange shares between platforms. The higher Polymarket price likely stems from its different user base, which may include more speculative traders or those with specific insider views on Maine politics. Kalshi's lower price may reflect a more cautious assessment from traders who weigh historical primary patterns. For a disciplined trader, selling Charles on Polymarket while buying on Kalshi would lock in a risk-free profit if the prices converge, though the low volume makes executing this trade at scale difficult.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Republican nomination for the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific candidate once they officially win the Republican Party's nomination at the state convention or through a primary process. The 2026 election will determine who succeeds Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat who is term-limited and cannot run for re-election. This creates an open seat for the first time since 2018, generating significant interest in both parties' nomination contests. The Republican primary is expected to be competitive, with several potential candidates considering runs. The outcome will shape the general election battle for control of the Blaine House, the governor's residence in Augusta. Political observers are watching this race closely as a potential indicator of Maine's shifting political dynamics, particularly in its more rural northern and western regions. The nomination process typically involves county caucuses in early 2026, followed by a state convention where delegates formally select the nominee, though the party could opt for a primary election.
Maine's gubernatorial elections have followed a consistent four-year cycle since 1974. The state has a history of political independence, with voters electing independent governors James B. Longley (1975-1979) and Angus King (1995-2003). Republican success in gubernatorial races has been sporadic in recent decades. Paul LePage's election in 2010 marked the first Republican victory since 1998, when Angus King was re-elected as an independent. LePage won re-election in 2014 with 48.2% of the vote in a three-way race against Democrat Mike Michaud and independent Eliot Cutler. The 2018 election saw Democrat Janet Mills defeat Republican Shawn Moody with 50.9% of the vote, returning the governor's office to Democratic control after eight years. The Republican nomination process has varied. In 2018, the party used a primary election where Shawn Moody defeated three other candidates with 56% of the vote. In 2014, Paul LePage faced only token primary opposition. The 2010 Republican primary was highly competitive, with LePage winning a seven-candidate field with 37% of the vote. Historically, the party has used a hybrid system involving both primaries and state conventions, though rules can change between election cycles.
The Republican nominee will determine the party's strategy and platform for the general election, influencing policy debates on issues like energy costs, housing, and taxation. Maine's governor holds significant executive power, including veto authority, budget proposal powers, and appointment of judges and department heads. The election's outcome will affect the implementation of laws passed by the legislature, which has been under Democratic control in recent sessions. For Maine residents, the governor shapes policies on economic development, healthcare expansion, environmental regulations, and education funding. The race also has national implications as a potential bellwether for rural political trends in New England. A competitive Republican nominee could force Democrats to allocate national resources to defend what might otherwise be considered a safe seat, affecting party strategy in other states.
As of late 2024, no Republican candidate has officially declared for the 2026 gubernatorial race. Potential candidates are in the early stages of gauging support and fundraising prospects. The Maine Republican Party has not yet announced whether it will select its nominee through a primary election or the state convention process. Former Governor Paul LePage has given interviews indicating he is seriously considering another run, telling WGAN radio in September 2024 that he is 'looking at it very closely.' Other potential candidates like Eric Brakey and Garrett Mason are reportedly having conversations with donors and party activists. The Democratic field is also uncertain, with several potential candidates considering runs to succeed the term-limited Janet Mills.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This follows the standard four-year cycle for Maine gubernatorial elections, with the winner taking office in January 2027 for a four-year term.
The Maine Republican Party can choose nominees through either a primary election or a state convention. In recent cycles, they have used primaries. The 2018 nominee was selected through a June primary election where any registered Republican could vote.
Yes, Maine law allows former governors to run again after a break in service. LePage served from 2011 to 2019, was out of office for four years, and can legally seek another term. He already attempted a comeback in 2022, losing to Janet Mills.
Candidates must file with the Maine Ethics Commission once they raise or spend $5,000. The Maine Clean Election Act provides public funding for candidates who qualify by collecting small donations, with grants of approximately $1.4 million for the primary and $3.8 million for the general election in 2022.
Janet Mills, a Democrat, is the current governor. She is term-limited and cannot run for re-election in 2026, having served two consecutive terms. This creates an open seat for the first time since 2018.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
24 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Wil Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 44% |
![]() | Poly | 43% |
Wil Ben Midgley be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 31% |
![]() | Poly | 25% |
![]() | Poly | 21% |
Wil Jonathan Bush be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 8% |
![]() | Poly | 7% |
Wil Laurel Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 6% |
![]() | Poly | 4% |
Wil Shawn Moody be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 2% |
Wil Owen McCarthy be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 2% |
Wil Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 2% |
![]() | Poly | 2% |
Wil Bruce Poliquin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Robert Wessels be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
![]() | Poly | 1% |
![]() | Poly | 1% |
Wil Trey Stewart be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Travis Mills be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Rick Bennett be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Peter Cianchette be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Mikek Soboleski be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil James Libby be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
Wil Jason Levesque be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine? | Kalshi | 1% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelm



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