This prediction market addresses whether Nancy Pelosi, the influential Democratic leader and former Speaker of the House, will resign from her congressional office before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Pelosi resigns or announces her resignation before that date, with an early close condition triggered if she retires. This topic has gained significant attention due to Pelosi's advanced age, her long tenure in Congress, and the broader generational transition occurring within Democratic Party leadership. As one of the most powerful and recognizable figures in American politics, her potential departure would mark a major shift in the House of Representatives and the Democratic caucus. Recent years have seen increased speculation about her political future, particularly following the 2022 midterm elections where Democrats lost control of the House and Pelosi stepped down from her leadership role while remaining in Congress. The question of her retirement is intertwined with discussions about party renewal, succession planning, and the future direction of the Democratic Party. Observers are closely monitoring her public statements, fundraising activities, and campaign commitments for signals about her intentions as the 2026 deadline approaches.

Historical Context

Nancy Pelosi's political career provides essential context for understanding retirement speculation. First elected to Congress in a 1987 special election, Pelosi rose through Democratic ranks to become Minority Whip in 2001 and Minority Leader in 2002. She made history in 2007 when she became the first woman Speaker of the House, a position she held until 2011 when Republicans regained the majority. Pelosi returned to the Speaker's chair in 2019 after Democrats won back control, serving through January 2023. Her decision to step down from Democratic leadership in November 2022, while remaining in Congress, created the current situation where she serves as a rank-and-file member for the first time in over two decades. Historically, Pelosi has defied retirement predictions multiple times, most notably after the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack when she announced she would seek another term as Speaker despite being 80 years old. The precedent of senior members remaining in Congress after leaving leadership is mixed. Some, like former Republican Speaker John Boehner, resigned from Congress entirely upon leaving the speakership in 2015. Others, like former Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt, remained in Congress for several years after stepping down from leadership in 2002 before retiring in 2004. Pelosi's current situation most closely resembles that of former Speaker Sam Rayburn, who served as a regular member for two years after losing the speakership in 1947 before returning to the position in 1949.

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