Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Total Volume

$1.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Vol

$1.01K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.01K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.01K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

29 markets tracked

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(29)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	24%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	23%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	20%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	6%
Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	5%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	4%
Will Jess Phillips be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Richard Tice be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jonathan Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Pat McFadden be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will No new person be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Mel Stride be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Lisa Nandy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Louise Haigh be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Emma Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$1.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2035 If X formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2035

If X formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Jess Phillips formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this C"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jess Phillips be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Richard Tice be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Pat McFadden be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will No new person be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Mel Stride be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Lisa Nandy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Louise Haigh be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Keir Starmer be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Jonathan Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Emma Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2035): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Volume$1.01K

Markets29

29 of 29

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KALSHI

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

If Shabana Mahmood formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this

KALSHI

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

If Nigel Farage formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Co

KALSHI

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

If Kemi Badenoch formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this C

KALSHI

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

If Robert Jenrick formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this

KALSHI

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

If Zia Yusuf formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contr

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Fk5BEL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?"></iframe>

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Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

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Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Markets (29)

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

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