GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

Name: Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

Vol

$12.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	Poly	49%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$12.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? 
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (117 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.

The primary resolution source is the Senate 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resol"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $639
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.99)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? 
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $12.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics