This prediction market concerns the criminal prosecution of Nicolás Maduro Moros, the President of Venezuela, by the United States Department of Justice. The specific question is whether Maduro will be found guilty on all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS' (Case No. S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027. The indictment, unsealed in March 2020, charges Maduro and over a dozen other current and former Venezuelan officials with narco-terrorism, corruption, and drug trafficking conspiracies, alleging they transformed Venezuela's state institutions into a criminal enterprise. The case is being prosecuted in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The U.S. government has offered a $15 million reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest and/or conviction. This legal action represents an unprecedented escalation in U.S. pressure on the Maduro regime, intertwining international law, geopolitics, and the Venezuelan crisis. People are interested because the outcome could dramatically alter Venezuela's political landscape, impact global drug policy, and set a significant precedent for prosecuting sitting foreign heads of state. The market's resolution depends solely on the court's initial verdict on the specific indictment as it existed at the market's creation.

Historical Context

The U.S. indictment against Maduro is the culmination of over a decade of escalating tensions and investigations. The alleged criminal network, dubbed the 'Cartel de los Suns,' refers to sun insignias worn by Venezuelan generals. U.S. authorities first linked high-level Venezuelan officials to drug trafficking in the late 2000s, with the 2008 arrest of Venezuelan National Guard officer Luis Francisco da Costa Gómez for smuggling cocaine on a government aircraft. In 2015, the U.S. arrested and convicted two nephews of Venezuela's First Lady, Cilia Flores, on drug charges, revealing familial connections to trafficking. The formal legal groundwork accelerated after 2017, when the Trump administration imposed severe sanctions on Maduro's government and designated Vice President Tareck El Aissami as a drug kingpin. This set a precedent for treating Venezuelan officials as criminal actors rather than just political adversaries. The March 26, 2020 indictment itself was historic, marking the first time the U.S. formally charged a sitting foreign head of state with narco-terrorism. This action followed a pattern of using U.S. courts to target foreign officials accused of corruption and drug trafficking, such as the 2014 conviction of Guatemalan former President Alfonso Portillo for money laundering.

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