Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Name: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
End: 2026-09-30T19:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$182.73K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Vol

$182.73K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $182.73K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $182.73K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?	Poly	96%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?	Poly	91%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?	Poly	80%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 24, 2026?	Poly	11%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?	Poly	9%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?	Poly	9%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 20, 2026?	Poly	8%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 26, 2026?	Poly	7%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$182.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red S

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red S

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The defined area consists o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $120.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $492
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 243.82)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $43.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 22, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 24, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 24, 2026): Vol $945
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 26, 2026): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 27, 2026): Vol $357
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $25.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 29, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $18.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics