$2.33K
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$2.33K
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6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on January 20, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is no
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the total number of TSA passengers screened on January 20, 2026, will be under 2.3 million. The leading contract on Polymarket, "Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 20 be less than 2,300,000?", is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This indicates traders see a very high likelihood of passenger volumes falling below that threshold. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with only about $2,000 in volume spread across six related brackets, suggesting limited capital is backing this consensus view.
Two primary historical and seasonal factors are driving this high-confidence prediction. First, January 20 falls on a Tuesday, which is consistently one of the lowest-volume travel days of the week for air travel. Second, this date is squarely within the post-holiday travel trough. Historical TSA data shows passenger counts reliably drop in mid-to-late January after the New Year's rush, often hitting some of the lowest points of the entire year. For context, TSA throughput on Tuesday, January 21, 2025, was approximately 2.15 million passengers, and similar dates in previous years also show figures well below the 2.3 million mark. The market is essentially betting on this strong seasonal pattern holding.
While the seasonal pattern is strong, the current 95% probability leaves little room for surprise. The odds could shift if an unforeseen event disrupts typical travel patterns. A significant, widespread winter storm affecting major hubs in the days leading up to January 20 could further suppress numbers, but this might only reinforce the current "Yes" prediction. The more impactful risk to the consensus would be a surprisingly robust travel rebound, potentially driven by last-minute discounting or a major event concluding on that Monday. However, given the historical data and weekday placement, such a surge appears improbable. The market will resolve shortly after the TSA officially publishes its daily throughput data for January 20, 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the total number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) on a specific future date, January 20, 2026. The TSA, a component of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, screens all commercial airline passengers at U.S. airports. Its daily throughput data, published on its official website, serves as a critical real-time indicator of national air travel volume, economic activity, and consumer confidence. The market resolves based on the official TSA-reported figure for that exact date, with specific rules for handling data revisions and bracket resolution. Interest in this metric extends beyond aviation enthusiasts to economists, policymakers, and investors who view air passenger volume as a high-frequency proxy for broader economic health, business travel demand, and leisure spending. The specific date of January 20 may attract additional attention as it falls shortly after the winter holiday travel season and could be influenced by patterns related to Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend travel, corporate calendar resets, and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
The TSA was created by the Aviation and Transportation Security Act signed by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001, in response to the September 11 attacks. It assumed responsibility for passenger screening from private contractors and began reporting security checkpoint data. For over two decades, this data has provided a consistent time series of U.S. air travel activity. Historically, passenger volumes have followed strong seasonal patterns, with peaks around summer holidays and Thanksgiving, and a secondary peak around the winter holiday period ending in early January. The data series was catastrophically disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. On April 14, 2020, TSA screened only 87,534 passengers nationwide, compared to over 2.5 million on the same weekday in 2019. The recovery has been a key benchmark for the return of normal economic and social activity. By 2023, volumes had largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, albeit with altered patterns, such as more pronounced leisure travel and a slower recovery in certain business travel segments. The data for January 20 specifically has varied historically, influenced by whether it falls on a weekday or weekend and its proximity to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
The TSA passenger count is a vital economic indicator, often described as a real-time pulse check on the U.S. economy. High passenger volumes signal robust business activity, strong consumer confidence, and healthy discretionary spending. Conversely, a downturn can foreshadow economic softening. Airlines, airports, hotels, rental car companies, and related service industries are directly affected by these numbers, which influence hiring, investment, and revenue projections. For the federal government, these figures inform critical decisions on infrastructure funding, aviation security staffing, and transportation policy. Politically, strong travel numbers can be cited as evidence of economic prosperity, while disruptions or declines can lead to congressional scrutiny of agencies and airlines. On a social level, the data reflects the mobility of the American public, trends in remote work versus office returns, and the enduring demand for in-person connection through travel.
As of late 2024, U.S. air travel demand has remained resilient despite economic headwinds like inflation. TSA throughput data for 2024 has consistently set new records for holiday periods, indicating sustained strong demand for leisure travel. The industry continues to navigate challenges including aircraft delivery delays, pilot union negotiations, and air traffic controller shortages, which could constrain capacity growth into 2026. The TSA itself is engaged in initiatives to improve checkpoint efficiency, such as expanding TSA PreCheck and testing new screening technologies, which could influence processing times and maximum daily throughput capabilities by January 2026.
The TSA publishes its daily passenger throughput data on its official website under a dedicated data dashboard. The figures are typically updated each morning with the previous day's count and include year-over-year comparisons for context.
Daily numbers are primarily driven by airline flight schedules, which are influenced by seasonal demand, day of the week (weekends are often busier for leisure), proximity to holidays, and broader economic conditions. Extreme weather events, system-wide technical outages, or significant security incidents can also cause sharp, temporary declines.
It is considered a highly accurate and timely high-frequency economic indicator. Because it measures actual transactions (people flying), it is less subject to revision than survey-based metrics and provides a real-time view of consumer and business activity related to travel and tourism.
No, the widely cited daily 'checkpoint' throughput numbers represent passengers screened at TSA security checkpoints within U.S. airports for domestic and outbound international flights. Passengers arriving on international flights clear Customs and Border Protection (CBP), not TSA checkpoints, and are not included in this count.
The lowest count in the TSA's history was 87,534 passengers on April 14, 2020, at the depth of the initial COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and travel restrictions. This was less than 4% of typical volume at the time.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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