$7.69K
1
10
$7.69K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Serie A after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Serie A following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction markets currently assign a 69% probability that Hellas Verona will be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season. This price, translating to an implied probability of nearly 7 in 10, indicates the market views relegation as the clear expected outcome. However, with 133 days until the season concludes and resolution, significant uncertainty remains. The thin trading volume, just $8,000 across all related club markets, suggests this is a speculative, low-liquidity market where prices may be more volatile to new information.
Two primary factors are shaping the pessimistic outlook for Verona. First, the club's recent historical performance places them firmly in the relegation battaglia. They have narrowly avoided the drop in several recent seasons, including a 17th-place finish in 2023-24, often relying on final-day results. This establishes them as a perennial candidate rather than a stable mid-table side. Second, their underlying squad strength and financial resources are consistently outmatched by many Serie A competitors. Without significant investment in the upcoming transfer windows, the market is pricing in a continuation of their struggle against more ambitious clubs.
The current odds are highly sensitive to squad construction in the summer 2025 transfer window. A series of shrewd signings that address key weaknesses, particularly in goal-scoring, could see the "Yes" probability fall sharply. Conversely, the sale of a key player or poor preseason form would solidify the relegation forecast. The odds will also react dynamically to Verona's actual performance through the first half of the 2025-26 season. A strong start, perhaps landing them in the top 12 by the winter break, would be a major catalyst for a price correction. The final and most decisive phase will be the final five matchdays, where Verona's fixture difficulty and their rivals' results will cause high volatility in the prediction market price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting which football clubs will be relegated from Italy's top professional football league, Serie A, following the conclusion of the 2025–26 season. Relegation is a critical event in European football, where the three lowest-placed teams at the end of the season are demoted to Serie B, the second tier. This market allows participants to speculate on the fate of individual clubs, with each contract resolving to 'Yes' if that specific club is officially relegated, and 'No' if it avoids the drop. The outcome is determined by the final league standings as officially confirmed by Serie A's governing body, Lega Serie A, with a resolution deadline of October 1, 2026. Interest in this market stems from the high-stakes nature of relegation, which carries severe financial and sporting consequences, making it a topic of intense speculation among fans, analysts, and bettors. The 2025–26 season is particularly intriguing as it follows a period of significant financial disparity and competitive imbalance within the league, where traditional powerhouses dominate the top and a larger group of clubs battle to avoid the bottom. Recent trends show newly promoted clubs and historically smaller teams are often at highest risk, but unexpected collapses from established mid-table sides can also occur, adding layers of complexity to the prediction.
The system of promotion and relegation between Serie A and Serie B has been a fundamental feature of Italian football since the national league was reorganized in 1929. Historically, the number of teams relegated has varied, but since the 2006–07 season, the format has been standardized with 20 teams, resulting in the bottom three being relegated automatically. This creates a dramatic 'salvezza' (salvation) battle each season. Historically, famous clubs have suffered shocking relegations, such as AC Milan's voluntary demotion in 1980 due to the Totonero scandal, and Juventus's enforced relegation to Serie B in 2006 following the Calciopoli match-fixing scandal. More recently, the 2021–22 season saw the relegation of storied club Venezia after just one season back in the top flight, and the 2022–23 season witnessed the dramatic last-day survival of Hellas Verona and Lecce, while Sampdoria and Cremonese were relegated. These events underscore how relegation is not just a sporting failure but a profound financial and institutional crisis. The historical precedent shows that newly promoted clubs have a high attrition rate, with data indicating they are statistically the most likely to be relegated, though established clubs can collapse due to poor management, financial distress, or key player departures.
Relegation from Serie A is a catastrophic financial event for a football club. It triggers an immediate and severe loss of revenue from television rights, which constitute the largest income stream for Serie A clubs. The current domestic TV deal, worth approximately €1.1 billion annually, is distributed among top-flight clubs, with relegated teams losing access to this money and receiving only a limited 'parachute payment' for two seasons. This often forces clubs to sell their best players, cut staff, and operate under strict financial constraints, sometimes leading to bankruptcy or multiple relegations, as seen with clubs like Parma and Palermo in the past. Beyond economics, relegation has deep social and cultural impacts. Football clubs are pillars of their local communities and cities. Their top-flight status is a source of civic pride, local business revenue, and community identity. A club's fall can demoralize a city and strain municipal resources. For the league itself, the relegation battle is a core narrative that drives fan engagement and media interest for the entire second half of the season, maintaining competitive balance and ensuring that matches at the bottom of the table have immense significance.
As of late 2024, the composition of Serie A for the 2025–26 season is not yet finalized, as it depends on the outcomes of the 2024–25 campaign. The 2024–25 season is underway, with clubs like newly-promoted Como, Venezia, and Parma fighting to establish themselves. The performance of these clubs this season will be a critical early indicator of their potential survival chances for 2025–26. Meanwhile, several historically mid-table clubs, such as Udinese, Empoli, and Salernitana, have experienced recent brushes with relegation, suggesting they could be perennial candidates. The latest developments include ongoing negotiations for Serie A's next domestic TV rights cycle starting from 2024–25, which will set the financial landscape for the season in question. Furthermore, UEFA's continued enforcement of Financial Fair Play regulations places additional budgetary pressure on all clubs, potentially limiting the ability of struggling teams to invest in their squads to avoid the drop.
Three teams are relegated from Serie A each season. The clubs that finish in 18th, 19th, and 20th place in the final league table are automatically demoted to Serie B for the following season.
There is no playoff to avoid relegation in Serie A. The bottom three teams are relegated automatically. However, in Serie B, the team finishing in 3rd place can enter a playoff for the final promotion spot, but this does not involve Serie A teams.
Player contracts remain valid upon relegation. However, contracts often include relegation release clauses that allow players to leave for a reduced fee. Clubs typically must sell high-wage earners to balance finances, leading to a significant squad overhaul.
Yes, clubs can be administratively relegated if they fail to meet financial requirements or declare bankruptcy. For example, Parma was relegated to Serie D in 2015 due to bankruptcy, and more recently, in 2021, Chievo Verona was excluded from professional football entirely for financial failures.
Bologna and Genoa hold the record for the most relegations from Serie A, each having been relegated from the top flight on 12 separate occasions throughout their long histories in Italian football.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 67% |
| Poly | 60% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 34% |
| Poly | 20% |
| Poly | 11% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/FwzUBX" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Serie A - Which Clubs Get Relegated?"></iframe>