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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place

Name: Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$38.59K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place

Vol

$38.59K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $38.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $38.59K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

17 markets tracked

Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	51%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	40%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	8%
Will Juan Manuel Galán place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Roy Barreras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will David Luna Sánchez place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Daniel Quintero place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Vicky Dávila place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Gustavo Bolívar place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$38.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $38.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $79.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Germán Vargas Lleras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Daniel Quintero place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Juan Carlos Pinzón place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Enrique Peñalosa place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Vicky Dávila place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will David Luna Sánchez place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gustavo Bolívar place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Mauricio Cárdenas place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Juan Manuel Galán place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $960
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Roy Barreras place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics