Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Total Volume

$685.62

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Vol

$685.62

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $685.62

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $685.62

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	87%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	62%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	40%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$685.62

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Jan 1, 2027 If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect, i.e., being collected, on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not im

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Jan 1, 2027

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect, i.e., being collected, on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not im

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $686
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $601
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $81
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Volume$685.62

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.0¢No 60.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 30%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie

KALSHI

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specifie

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44¢

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What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Markets (5)

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be at least 40% on Jan 1, 2027?

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