Number of rate cuts in 2026?
$64.72M
2
34
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
$64.72M
2
34
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
In 2026 If the Fed cuts X times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut, so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both sources ask how many Federal Reserve rate cuts will occur in 2026, but their wording differs. Kalshi's rule says that "If the Fed cuts X times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," and that "25bp of cuts is equal to one cut" [1]. Its excerpt does not address emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. Polymarket's rule states that emergency cuts "will also count toward the total," and that the market "will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [2]. Polymarket's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [2]. Kalshi's source lists no end time, while its market records show 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z [1]. Because the rules differ on emergency actions and close times, the two events should not be treated as identical contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The data were observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z and retrieved at 2026-10-13T05:07:28.828Z, so these are point-in-time prices, not live quotes. On Kalshi, the "0 times" Yes price was 0.9525 and the "1 times" Yes price was 0.0395 [1]. On Polymarket, "no Fed rate cuts" Yes was 0.9635 and "1 Fed rate cut" Yes was 0.018 [2]. These are snapshot prices, not verified probabilities, and they are not executable quotes.
Coverage is partial. Kalshi included 12 of 21 markets and Polymarket included 12 of 13 [1][2]. The selection favored higher Yes prices, so the omitted Kalshi markets are not known to be cheaper, and the sample is not the full field. Each platform's rankings should be read separately, and the two platforms' prices should not be averaged or combined into one ranking.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how volume relates to liquidity. Price differences between platforms may reflect differences in wording, close times, or rules, so they do not establish an arbitrage opportunity. The sources do not show how the outcome will be determined beyond the stated rules, and the snapshot cannot indicate later prices.
References
- Kalshi: Number of rate cuts in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
- Polymarket: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
Two prediction markets in the supplied evidence ask how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026. One is listed on Kalshi and one on Polymarket. Both are framed around a count of cuts, but they use somewhat different wording, so they should be read as separate contracts. The Kalshi event asks for the number of rate cuts in 2026. Its rules count cuts from January 1, 2026 and before 2027, and treat a 25 basis point move as one cut. A 25 basis point cut is one, a 50 basis point cut is two, and a 75 basis point cut is three [1]. Individual Kalshi markets ask whether the Fed will cut rates a specific number of times, and resolve Yes if the count matches that threshold [1]. The Polymarket event resolves according to the exact number of 25 basis point cuts the Fed makes in 2026, including any cut at the December meeting. Its rules also say that emergency cuts made outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the total. The market remains open until December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET to allow for such emergency actions [2]. The rules give an example in which a 50 basis point cut after a meeting counts as two cuts [2]. The price data in this snapshot covers only part of each event. The Kalshi event has 21 markets, and 12 are included in the sample. The Polymarket event has 13 markets, and 12 are included. The included markets are those with the highest Yes prices in each event, followed by volume, so the omitted thresholds are not known to have lower prices. Among the included markets, the Yes price for no cuts was about 0.95 on Kalshi and about 0.96 on Polymarket at the time of the snapshot. Those figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
Each contract measures a count of Federal Reserve rate cuts over calendar 2026, with each 25 basis point reduction treated as one unit. The Kalshi rules define a cut in this way and resolve each threshold market on whether the count matches [1]. The Polymarket rules use the same unit but add emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings to the total [2]. The difference in counting rules means the two events are not identical, even though both concern the same year. Traders and readers can use the contract wording to see exactly what outcome each price refers to. The price data show how the markets priced various counts at one moment, but they do not record how the year actually turned out.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is a rate cut counted in these contracts?
Kalshi treats a 25 basis point cut as one cut, so a 50 basis point cut counts as two and a 75 basis point cut counts as three [1]. Polymarket uses the same 25 basis point unit, so a 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts [2].
Do emergency rate cuts count?
The Polymarket rules say emergency cuts made outside scheduled FOMC meetings count toward the total number of cuts in 2026 [2]. The supplied Kalshi excerpt does not address emergency actions, so its treatment of them cannot be confirmed from this evidence [1].
When do these contracts close?
Polymarket states that its market remains open until December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and its listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [2]. The Kalshi event excerpt does not supply a listed end time for the event [1], but the market records in this snapshot show an end date of January 1, 2027 at 15:00 UTC [1]. A closing time is not a resolution, and the supplied evidence does not show how either contract resolved.
Does a price show the probability that an outcome will happen?
No. The prices here are snapshots from a single observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a difference between the two platforms' prices does not by itself show a trading opportunity because the contracts use different wording and different sampled markets.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
2
Saved price pairs
12
Largest saved gap: 3.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
