Number of rate cuts in 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEconomics

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Name: Number of rate cuts in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.91M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.55M

Kalshi

markets · $362.90K

Price Spread

1.5%avg

max 4.2%

Arbitrage

of 12 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.91M

88%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(12)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?ARB	28%	25%	4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?ARB	26%	24%	2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	17%	17%	1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?ARB	8%	11%	3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	9%	10%	1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?ARB	4%	9%	4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5%	7%	2%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2%	3%	0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	1%	2%	0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	1%	2%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(10)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$2.91M

Volume

Markets

2.6%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If the Fed cuts X times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut, so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of rate cuts in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the Fed cuts X times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut, so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on)."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.91M
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.72M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (13 mkts) vs Kalshi (21 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $86.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $373.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.2% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $27.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $228.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $47.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $265.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $26.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $160.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.5% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $34.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $128.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Fed cut rates 5 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $41.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $158.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Fed cut rates 6 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $36.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $173.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will the Fed cut rates 7 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $140.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Fed cut rates 8 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $225.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Fed cut rates 9 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $141.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Fed cut rates 10 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $179.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Fed cut rates 11 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $180.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Fed cut rates 20 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Fed cut rates 19 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Fed cut rates 18 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the Fed cut rates 17 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the Fed cut rates 16 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the Fed cut rates 15 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the Fed cut rates 14 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the Fed cut rates 13 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the Fed cut rates 12 times?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $190.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 18h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

Polymarket

9¢

Kalshi

4¢ price gap

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