BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price chart or another platform's BNB contract should check whether that contract uses the same source, averaging method, and window. Wording differences like these can change what a contract measures even when the titles look similar.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time as listed by the provider. It is not evidence that the contract has closed or resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:25:04.922Z [1]. The status recorded at retrieval was "active" [1]. These values describe that saved snapshot only. They do not show the market's status or prices at the time you read this.
The saved quotes are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, but the snapshot does not show spreads, depth, or the price a trader could actually fill at.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, and the coverage record shows no partial sample [1]. Because no other outcomes are listed for this event, there is nothing to compare against beyond these two sides. Volume and trader counts are not included in the evidence, so the snapshot cannot indicate liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is. It also does not show recent BNB price movements, the BNB price at the start of the window, or the TWAP value during the window. Without those figures, the snapshot cannot indicate how the contract is likely to resolve.
Finally, the contract has not resolved according to the supplied evidence. Any reader comparing it with a contract on another platform should first confirm that the two use the same source, window, and close time.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB, measured against U.S. dollars, will finish a 15-minute window higher or lower than where it began. The saved event contains one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. Because the provider lists the window in Eastern Time, the contract's listed end time of 2026-10-20T06:15:00.000Z corresponds to the close of the 2:00 to 2:15 AM ET window named in the title [1]. The contract's resolution rules are specific. According to the provider, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider also states that the market concerns the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink [1]. The provider reported the contract's status as active at the time of the saved record [1]. That status describes the provider listing at observation time only. It does not show whether the window has closed or how the contract has settled.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a defined 15-minute interval, using a time-weighted average rather than a single trade. Because the comparison uses the average over the window against the price at the window's start, a contract can resolve differently from a simple comparison of the opening and closing prices [1]. The rules tie resolution to one named data stream, so readers should treat that stream as the reference for how the contract settles, not general market quotes from other venues [1]. The listed end time and the time-weighted method mean that the outcome depends on the data stream's values during the window, as defined by the provider [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Up" outcome require?
The provider states that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price feed determines the result?
The provider names the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and says the market does not use other sources or spot markets for resolution [1].
Does the October 20 date in the title mean an announced event?
The title identifies the trading window, and the provider lists an end time of 2026-10-20T06:15:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is a contract rule for the window, not a separately announced event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.