BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-20T04:15:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is a contract closing time, not a resolution. The evidence does not show how or when this contract resolved, so the outcome is unknown from the supplied material.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation was taken at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:26:57Z [1]. The provider reported the contract's status as "active" at retrieval [1]. These are two different timestamps: the observation is when the price was recorded, and the retrieval is when this record was pulled. Neither should be read as a live quote.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this record. Because the market is a binary contract, the difference of 0.010 between the two prices reflects only the saved snapshot. The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show trading volume or the number of participants, so liquidity cannot be judged from this record.
The sample covers one market, and the coverage record shows that this market is complete for this event: 1 total market, 1 included, with partialSample set to false [1]. No other platform's contract is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any later price data, the final TWAP values, the starting price for the window, or the actual resolution. It also does not establish whether the listed end time and the ET window in the title match in every respect beyond what the record states. The sample warning notes that the provider's saved list does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed, though this binary contract shows both outcomes [1]. Any reader should check the live contract and the Chainlink data stream directly before drawing conclusions about the current state of this market.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on BNB, the asset tracked as BNB/USD. Its title, "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET", identifies a 15-minute window on October 20 in Eastern Time [1]. The contract is listed on Polymarket and is categorized under crypto [1]. The rules do not ask whether BNB's price rose or fell at a single moment. They compare a time-weighted average price (TWAP) over the window with the price at the start of the window. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to "Up". Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify by name [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader therefore needs to understand that feed's calculation, not only a general BNB price quoted elsewhere. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-20T04:15:00.000Z, which is 04:15 UTC [1]. This is the end time stated in the contract rules. It is not a separate announcement about any event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over a specific 15-minute window finishes at or above the price where the window began [1]. Because the rule uses an average across the window, a brief spike or dip at one moment does not by itself decide the outcome. The result depends on the averaged price compared with the starting level [1]. The rules also make the data source central. Only the referenced Chainlink TWAP stream is named as the resolution source, so the contract is about that feed's values and not about BNB prices on other venues [1]. Trading volume shown on a market page does not describe how the contract resolves, and this source does not address liquidity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the 12:00AM-12:15AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What makes this market resolve to Down?
If the time-weighted average price over the window is not greater than or equal to the starting price, the rules state that the market resolves to Down [1].
Which data source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules [1].
Do other exchanges or spot markets affect resolution?
No. The rules say the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the listed window end?
The listed end time in the contract rules is 2026-10-20T04:15:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.