Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Pam Bondi being the first departure from a potential second Trump Cabinet. Her leading contract is priced at 30¢, implying roughly a 30% chance. This suggests the market views her as a plausible but not the most likely candidate for an early exit. The high trading volume of $6.5 million across 52 related markets indicates strong interest and liquidity, making these odds a meaningful consensus view. The market structure covers departures before the end of 2026, focusing on the initial phase of a new administration.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Pam Bondi's elevated odds are primarily driven by her specific role and history. As a former Florida Attorney General and a close Trump ally, she is a leading contender for Attorney General. This role is historically one of the most contentious and high-turnover Cabinet positions, especially in administrations facing legal challenges. Markets are pricing in the inherent volatility of that office. Furthermore, Bondi's own controversial tenure and deep involvement in Trump's political circle could make her a target for early political pressure or conflict, increasing her turnover risk relative to other potential appointees in less scrutinized roles.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds will be most sensitive to the official Cabinet appointments following the 2024 election. If Bondi is not nominated for Attorney General or receives a lower-profile role, her probability will plummet. Conversely, confirmation hearings in early 2025 could reveal vulnerabilities, increasing her odds if she faces intense Senate scrutiny. An early controversy involving the Justice Department, such as a clash over investigations related to Trump or his associates, would likely cause her contract price to spike. The market will react sharply to any rumors or reports of internal West Wing conflict involving her department in the first 100 days of the administration.

Cross-Platform Analysis

This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing for direct comparison. Generally, prices are closely aligned due to arbitrage, but minor spreads can occur due to platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. A consistent price around 30% for Bondi across platforms reinforces it as a stable consensus. Traders should monitor both platforms for temporary divergences, as a significant spread could present a short-term arbitrage opportunity before market forces correct the discrepancy, typically driven by one platform reacting faster to breaking news.