
$6.48M
2
52

$6.48M
2
52
28 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 30% | 29% | 2% |
![]() | 15% | 22% | 7% |
![]() | 9% | 16% | 6% |
![]() | 4% | 11% | 7% |
![]() | 10% | 5% | 5% |
![]() | 5% | 7% | 2% |
![]() | 2% | 4% | 2% |
![]() | 2% | 3% | 0% |
![]() | 1% | 3% | 2% |
![]() | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2029 If X is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave, such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Pam Bondi being the first departure from a potential second Trump Cabinet. Her leading contract is priced at 30¢, implying roughly a 30% chance. This suggests the market views her as a plausible but not the most likely candidate for an early exit. The high trading volume of $6.5 million across 52 related markets indicates strong interest and liquidity, making these odds a meaningful consensus view. The market structure covers departures before the end of 2026, focusing on the initial phase of a new administration.
Pam Bondi's elevated odds are primarily driven by her specific role and history. As a former Florida Attorney General and a close Trump ally, she is a leading contender for Attorney General. This role is historically one of the most contentious and high-turnover Cabinet positions, especially in administrations facing legal challenges. Markets are pricing in the inherent volatility of that office. Furthermore, Bondi's own controversial tenure and deep involvement in Trump's political circle could make her a target for early political pressure or conflict, increasing her turnover risk relative to other potential appointees in less scrutinized roles.
The odds will be most sensitive to the official Cabinet appointments following the 2024 election. If Bondi is not nominated for Attorney General or receives a lower-profile role, her probability will plummet. Conversely, confirmation hearings in early 2025 could reveal vulnerabilities, increasing her odds if she faces intense Senate scrutiny. An early controversy involving the Justice Department, such as a clash over investigations related to Trump or his associates, would likely cause her contract price to spike. The market will react sharply to any rumors or reports of internal West Wing conflict involving her department in the first 100 days of the administration.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, allowing for direct comparison. Generally, prices are closely aligned due to arbitrage, but minor spreads can occur due to platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. A consistent price around 30% for Bondi across platforms reinforces it as a stable consensus. Traders should monitor both platforms for temporary divergences, as a significant spread could present a short-term arbitrage opportunity before market forces correct the discrepancy, typically driven by one platform reacting faster to breaking news.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which member of the Trump administration's cabinet will be the next to depart, either through resignation or removal. The market resolves immediately upon the official announcement of a departure, regardless of when the departure takes effect, with a deadline of December 31, 2026. If no departure is announced by that time, the market resolves to 'None before 2027'. This topic captures significant political and media attention as cabinet turnover is a key indicator of administration stability, policy direction, and internal dynamics. During Donald Trump's first term, his administration experienced unusually high cabinet turnover, with 14 of 24 initial cabinet-level officials leaving before the end of the term, a rate significantly higher than recent predecessors. This historical precedent fuels speculation about potential departures in a potential second term. The interest stems from the implications for governance, the political signaling of such moves, and the potential for sudden policy shifts depending on which department experiences leadership change. Observers analyze public statements, policy disagreements, legal challenges, and Trump's own public commentary to gauge which officials might be most vulnerable.
Cabinet turnover during Donald Trump's first term was historically high. According to data compiled by the Brookings Institution, the Trump administration saw 65% of its initial cabinet secretaries depart within four years, compared to 47% for Barack Obama's first term and 31% for George W. Bush's first term. Notable departures often followed public disagreements with the President. For example, Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned in December 2018 over policy differences regarding Syria, submitting a resignation letter that was sharply critical. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was forced to resign in November 2018 after enduring prolonged public criticism from Trump over his recusal from the Russia investigation. The precedent set by these and other exits, including the firing of FBI Director James Comey in May 2017, established a pattern of volatility and a tolerance for public conflict between the President and his top officials. This history directly informs current speculation, as analysts look for similar signs of friction, loyalty tests, or policy disputes that preceded past departures.
Cabinet departures have significant ramifications for government functionality and policy continuity. A change in leadership at a major department like Defense, State, or Justice can lead to immediate shifts in regulatory enforcement, diplomatic initiatives, or national security strategy, affecting millions of citizens and U.S. global standing. These events also serve as a barometer of presidential management and administration cohesion, influencing political narratives, investor confidence, and legislative relationships. For the individuals involved, a departure can define a political legacy and future career prospects, while for the administration, it can trigger internal reshuffling, morale issues, and a period of instability during the confirmation process for a successor. The downstream consequences include potential delays in implementing the administration's agenda and the political capital expended to secure a new confirmation in a potentially divided Senate.
As of the latest information, the Trump administration cabinet for a potential second term is a subject of speculation and planning, with no official departures having been announced since any hypothetical inauguration. Media reports and insider accounts frequently analyze potential candidates for key positions and their likelihood of clashing with Trump's agenda or personal style. The political landscape is shaped by ongoing legal proceedings involving Trump, which could influence his relationships with appointees, particularly in the Justice Department. Recent focus has been on how a second-term cabinet would differ from the first, with expectations of appointments prioritizing personal loyalty and a specific ideological alignment from the outset.
An official departure is typically announced via a press release from the White House Press Secretary, a statement from the departing official's department, or a presidential post on social media or in a press briefing. The prediction market resolves on the first public, authoritative announcement.
If a cabinet secretary is reassigned to a different position within the administration but no longer holds a cabinet-level post, this would constitute a departure from the cabinet for the purposes of this market. A lateral move to another cabinet position would not.
The Vice President is a constitutional officer, not a cabinet secretary, and is not subject to removal by the President. Therefore, the Vice President is not considered a member of the 'Trump Cabinet' for the resolution of this prediction market.
This includes resignation, firing, termination, or any other formal cessation of duties in a cabinet-level position. It does not include temporary medical leave or a short-term delegation of authority where the individual retains the title.
The market rules specify it resolves on the 'next' individual announced. In the extremely rare event of two officials announcing departures at the exact same time, the market resolver would likely use the timestamp of the official announcements or authoritative news reports to determine chronological order.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Before 2029 If X is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave, such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are remo


This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignatio

If Pam Bondi is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first


This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignatio

If Kristi Noem is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves firs


This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignatio

If Lori Chavez-DeRemer is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who lea



This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignatio

If Tulsi Gabbard is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves fi
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