Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Total Volume
$535.42K
Events
1
Markets
1
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $535.42K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $535.42K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 12% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
12%
Top Probability
$535.42K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
On January 24, 2026, a federal immigration agent shot and killed a man in Minneapolis, Minnesota, during a federal immigration enforcement operation (see: https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/ice-minneapolis-shooting-01-24-26). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the federal immigration agent who fired the shots in the January 24, 2026 Minneapolis shooting, for any alleged crime
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 8 chance that the federal immigration agent involved in the Minneapolis shooting will face criminal charges. With the probability at 12%, traders collectively see an indictment as unlikely. This reflects a significant degree of skepticism that a prosecution will move forward.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are likely shaping this low probability. First, there is a historical precedent. Federal agents, especially those involved in on-duty shootings during enforcement actions, are rarely charged. Legal standards like "qualified immunity" and the high bar for proving a federal agent acted outside their authority make prosecutions uncommon.
Second, the specific circumstances matter. Initial reports from January 24 indicate the shooting happened during an immigration enforcement operation. If official investigations determine the agent perceived a credible threat, it becomes very difficult for prosecutors to prove criminal intent beyond a reasonable doubt. The market is essentially weighing these institutional and legal hurdles against public and political pressure for accountability.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The most important signals will come from official investigations. Watch for any public statements or preliminary findings from the FBI, which typically investigates shootings involving federal officers, or from the U.S. Attorney’s office in Minnesota. A grand jury being convened would be a major development that could shift predictions. The market resolves in about 38 days, but a formal charging decision could come at any point before then.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For questions about legal and political outcomes, prediction markets have a mixed but often insightful record. They aggregate many viewpoints about complex bureaucratic and judicial processes. However, their accuracy can be limited by a lack of clear, public information. In this case, the investigation details are not fully public, so the market is making a best guess based on historical patterns rather than known facts. This means the probability could change quickly if new, definitive information emerges.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a low 12% probability that the federal immigration agent involved in the January 24 Minneapolis shooting will face criminal charges. With shares priced at 12¢ for a "Yes" outcome, the consensus strongly expects no indictment. A 12% chance means the market views prosecution as a remote possibility, though not entirely impossible. The market has attracted significant attention, with over $534,000 in wagers, indicating serious capital is backing this low-probability assessment.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Two primary elements explain the 88% probability against charges. First, legal precedent heavily favors federal agents in use-of-force incidents during operations. Prosecutors face a high bar to prove an agent acted outside the bounds of their authority or violated clearly established law. Historical data shows federal criminal charges in such cases are exceptionally rare. Second, the initial framing from federal authorities will shape the narrative. Early reports describing the operation as a federal enforcement action and the deceased as a "man" without immediate public details about his status suggest a controlled information environment that typically protects agents from immediate legal jeopardy.
What Could Change These Odds
The odds could shift dramatically with new evidence. If body camera footage or witness accounts contradict the official use-of-force report, public and political pressure for charges could mount. The involvement of the Minnesota state attorney general's office, known for pursuing police accountability cases, is a specific risk to the "No" position. A formal investigation announcement by state or county prosecutors before the March 31 resolution date would likely cause the "Yes" probability to spike. Market movement will depend on leaks or official statements in the coming weeks, making this a news-driven contract.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.